What are good long range weather forecasts?

Question about weather, Please help me!?

  • Why are our most powerful computers unable to help us make long-range ( several weeks in advance) weather forecasts?

  • Answer:

    Computers cannot forecast that far into the future because, since it's dealing with weather, it can be unpredictable and change often.

Dom at Yahoo! Answers Visit the source

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Todd got it. Have you ever heard of chaotic theory? It is said that a butterfly flying in Japan can cause a tornado in the U.S.? While that may be pretty far out, according to chaotic theory, seemingly slight and unrelated events can cause major changes elsewhere in the environment. Nowhere is this more true than in forecasting weather - there are just too many variables to contend with. Currently, reasonably accurate forecasts are made for the next 5 to 7 days, based on dozens of factors, including barometric pressure, wind, temperatures, humidity and other factors from literally thousands of reporting stations around the world. The more data is considered, the more accurate a forecast can be, and for longer times, but there is a limit to9 what technology - and computers - can handle. I can remember many years ago when the announcement was made that, "We can now make accurate forecasts for three days in advance." Then it went to 5 days, and now they are pretty close a week ahead. Long range forecasts, for a month, or a season are based more on historical patterns as well as current conditions, and are much less detailed and accurate. For instance, hurricane forecasts for the season are based on history and ocean temperatures. as well as wind conditions. Those are rarely accurate, though they usually indicate whether a season will have lots of hurricanes or relatively few.

Ivy Vine

Mainly because the further out in time you go, the more atmospheric variables there are. Are you going to post all of your homework questions? Usually, us regulars take a dim view of doing homework for people.

Todd

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