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Why I think the All Blacks will NOT win RWC 2011. Your thoughts?

  • First off let me just state that I am a Springbok supporter and by no means am saying that the Springboks will win it, this is purely a discussion that I have had with my friends that I thought to be interesting, thus I am sharing it with you. The reason I think the All Blacks will NOT win is simple: In the last six RWC tournaments New Zealand have only won it once, the first won. I think we can all agree that at least 80% of the time NZ are dominating world rugby between WC tournaments. They are usually dominating Super Rugby, Tri-Nations and seem to always do well on their end-of-year tours. Thus its strange that when it comes to WC they seem to get knocked out in the semi,quarter or sometimes the final itself. The reason for this IN MY OPINION is due to the All Blacks style of play (which 80% of the time is brilliant). The All Blacks play with a flaired style of rugby, but unlike France (who also play a flaired style), they have structure to their play. They do the basics exteremly well, have good set phase ball etc etc, hence the reason why they win so much. They are very good at what they do! Problem comes when they have to play the knockout stages of the WC. During the pool stages they play their usual game. They play their flaired-structured style, which always has them finishing top of the log in their pool. Buuuut come the knockout stages they seem to change their style, they become more conservative. Now logic tells us that this is neccessary as one false move could end up with your team being booted from the RWC. Crazy thing is though, if you look back to Super Rugby, Tri-Nations etc etc you will find no time when the All Blacks play "conservative rugby", NEVER! So my point is this, if you never play conservative rugby between WC's then why do it during? It makes no sense! How can you expect to play to your best in the most pressured competition in the entire rugby calender and decide to change your gamplan? Why???!!! If the All Blacks are to win the RWC 2011 then they should play the game they play all the time! Even in the quarter, semi and finals, they must play their natural game, not this conservative thing, as they don't ever play conservative rugby. Like I say this is just my thoughts, feel free to tell me I'm an idiot and I don't know what I'm talking about etc etc. You don't have to agree with me but please give me your thoughts :) One thing is certain though, RWC 2011 is gonna be insane! Can't wait!

  • Answer:

    I sort of agree with you on about 80% of your assessment of AB's rugby between RW C's. But to say the AB's end up playing a conservative Style of rugby during the knockout games at the RWC is not accurate. In 2007 against France in Cardiff the score was 20-18 to France with twenty mins still remaining in the game.The AB's continued to play their open running game at that stage even though they knew that the French defense refuse to yield. All that was required by the AB's was a simple field goal or drop goal to put themselves in front which might have won them the game. They had enough opportunities but it was not to be. My point is they did not play conservatively which might have won them the game (forget about that controversial French try, that happens in rugby ) Similar thing in the 2003 semi-final against Australia. The AB's continued their open running style game but came up against a Aussie side who tackled like demons. Only late in the 2nd half did they change tactics with Carlos Spencer putting in the chip kicks unfortunately too late. One more example the 1999 semi-final against France again. The AB's usual attacking rugby style worked well in the first half but again a failure to have a plan B when the French became aggressive in their defense and attack. In neither of these three instances did the AB's change their style of play which had worked for them in the Tri-nations/Bledisloe cup games earlier in the year. It really was a failure to have a PLAN B when the opposition started to counter their style. If I was to sum up the AB's failures at previous RW C's it really has boiled down to a slight arrogance and lack of respect for their opponents which has been their undoing plus a lack of a back up game plan when tactics need to be changed during at he game. Lets hope the AB's have learnt these lessons from the past because knock out games are just that - you are knocked out even if you are the best side in the world you cant UNDERESTIMATE your opponents.

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Nice take on trying to piece together why they implode at world cups - but i still think its up there with the 7 mysterys of the World as to how they seem to fall short at the final hurdle despite dominating for 3 + 3/4 years. In fairness to the All Blacks, they normally get knocked out in the latter stages by losing to less than a score, and more often or not its either another SH giant or their bogey team on the other side of the equator that deals them the blow . Looking at it from that perspective it looks slightly more comprehensable as to understand why they havent won more WC's - but still, given their domination of world rugby outside of the WC period the frustration over their trophy haul is understandable. To be honest theres a heck of a lot of potential explanations that could be put forward to try and guess why the AB's explode come WC time - but how the best team in the world has only a 15% win rate in the biggest competition in rugby is astounding. You could even argue that the psychological factor of both know that your team historically chokes at WC's, as well as the factor that you know your home population considers the sport your playing a religion and expects you to win - it might make the players feel slightly uneasy given the stakes in a pressure situation of a knock out tie in a WC. Perhaps someday in our future we'll be advanced enough to solve this mystery - but one things for sure not just good teams or problems with in the AB ranks have stopped them winning WC's - a dodgy chef in '95 and a forward pass resultant try in '07 havent helped their quest.

with all respect, I think ALL BLACKS will win RWC 2011, as simple as that...

Leslie Steiner

The only thing that will stop an AB victory this year will be the apocalypse. There is absolutely no way they will not win this year... and convincingly at that.

twice.

You make some very good points... But I still think the ABs can win.

Ash!zzle

You have made awesome points there, the AllBlacks do tend to play conservative rugby when it comes to RWCs. As to why every AllBlack coach changes to conservative rugby is beyond me. Ive seen this pattern at every RWC an if they do it again they will lose again, which i hope doesnt happen. Many people have told me (kiwis inc) say that its a lose lose situation for the AllBlacks; if they lose theyre chockers, if they win, they can only win it in NZ. But as a true kiwi i would just like to see the A.Bs win it even it was only ever won in NZ. Last year was imo the best year for the AllBlacks, not just for NZ rugby but other sports also like netball (gold) 7s (gold) league (RLWC & Four Nations holders) soccer (undafeated) cricket (Worldcup semis) basketball winning the Australian NBL an many other sports. Anyway back to Rugby. No offence intended to other nations at this RWC, but the only team that i can see beating the AllBlacks are themselves, playing that conservative rugby again

George Smith

Ireland will win.

Cali

What we have here is a serious case of over-analysis. History means nothing in sports. Who cares what the AllBlacks did (or didn't do) in all those other world cups. Those were different teams, with different players and a different coaching staff. The AllBlacks are clearly the strongest team in the world at the moment, and they will be playing at home next autumn. Bookmakers have them at even odds, which is remarkable given a twenty-team fields. Also-rans like the 'boks and Wallabies are at 4-1 against. And these guys make their living by getting this sort of thing right most of the time.

blm

I disagree. Remember the last time the ABs won the world cup? Remember where it was played? That will be their biggest incentive to win. On paper, they have the best team for the cup. I'd like to see an AB v Wallaby final but the head says France or Ireland to play the ABs.

Bill P

the only reason, other teams have had any chance against the ABs is because of the knock out SYSTEM, 1991 was the only time i can remember when we were probably 3rd best in the world thru, retirements, injuries an changing of the guard, we were poor. Otherwise every WC should it be the best of 3., the ABs would have won EVERY CUP they played in, 95..best by 30 points, an the only team that played through a WC an came close to emulating the 87 team if they werent sick they would have kicked your a$$..in 20007 S.A won it against England..LOL..whatever...zzzz...an you know it, Australia through staunch defence is the only team i rate as having beat the ABs in a WC semi, to defend against England again coming through the back door.OZ deserved to win that WC a week before, England wining it was a joke... it only takes a very poor Performance by a ref an interpretation of the rules to lose one semi, we lost TWO ..WC through this bullshyet, through sickness a THIRD, plus 87 in my mind is 4.. WC....thats 4 out of 6...plus leading the world every year in between, no you can have a go and say one eyed AB supporter all you like, only its true in every instance, TOO many satistics back the reality, sour grapes no, if you spent 50 million dollars to send a team to a WC, get to the semis an a average ref knocks you out, thats bullshyet...we didnt deserve that irrespective of this, the ABs are the most feared rugby team in the world, have been for decades, nothing will change this year...GOODLUCK, i know where my money is, an every WC its the same, no one has forwards like the ABs an now we are also have a great back line too, as far as 7 goes, theres no other country that produces world class 6-7s...ABs an Ritchie McCaw to lift the WC this year...the TRis an the Bedisloe...an become the greatest captain of our time..it will also mean we are 2 equal...EQUAL...to your 2007 pathetic one up...dont take me wrong I love the BOKs..lol.axe...

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