Heart Attack risk assessment for me?

What is the actual risk of heart attack?

  • What is the risk percentage figure that people base all the other percentages on such as smoking doubles the risk or eating barbecued meat increases your chance of heart attack by 15%. 15% of what figure? The same goes for stroke or any of those other diseases where you hear stories that if you do this or that then your risk is increased of getting it. Whats the actual (or base figure) risk so that I can analyse better what the chances really are of getting one of these things. So say the actual risk of heart attack is 1% and then if I smoke that doubles the risk of me having a heart attack to 2%. Then I can decide from there whether it is worth the risk to keep smoking. OK smoking may not be a good example to use because we all know it's bad for us but you get the idea.

  • Answer:

    Cigarette smoking is the most important preventable cause of premature death in the United States. It accounts for nearly 440,000 of the more than 2.4 million annual deaths. Cigarette smokers have a higher risk of developing several chronic disorders. These include fatty buildups in arteries, several types of cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (lung problems). Atherosclerosis (buildup of fatty substances in the arteries) is a chief contributor to the high number of deaths from smoking. Many studies detail the evidence that cigarette smoking is a major cause of coronary heart disease, which leads to heart attack.

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You've gotten onto something that has been a problem in medical literature for some time, the reporting of "relative risk" without absolute numbers. It does sell better when you say "doubles" instead of "goes from one in a zillion to two in a zillion," so it's been a standard ploy that many of us wish would slink back into its place. As long as pharma companies compete for market share and researchers compete for grant money, though, I expect we'll just have to live with it, so (unless you're hypertensive or some other contraindication) take it with a grain of salt until they come clean, and keep in mind that the large majority of the "news" in medicine turns out BS on further examination, anyway. Another area to look at is whether the results reported were the answer to the question asked by the study. Often, medical studies are done, and they're a bust, but interesting statistics appear on "subgroup analysis." These are often reported as gospel, where they can only be used correctly as the basis for a hypothesis on which to base a later study.

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