How wet is the monsoon in July/August in South India?

Monsoon only can save India - A Congress Govt. discovery ?

• Hi Everybody, All the History/Indian movie lovers know that there was a time in indian history when people were totally dependent on monsoon to take away their voes. Fortunately \ or may be unfortunately, in this modern age we are once again headng towards the same stage. I am not the one saying this on my on, but its our Government who itself belives this and also forcing us to belive in this great achievement of theirs. Below are a few point which will justify what i wrote above. Lets start with the problems one by one. 1. Food price Inflation - Our esteemed agriculture minister Mr. Sharad Pawar sometimes obliges us by taking out some time out of his tight scheduled money making businesses (such as cricket, IPL etc.) for finding out the cause of rising food prices. He discovered and informed us in last December that he cannot control the prices as the same depends on market. The same may come down by April, 2010 after new harvested crop comes into the market (or may be because he will get time only in april mid to concentrate on agriculture as IPL was ending in April only) . But April came and gone, now may is also ending but prices are stil increasing. Then came the final conclusion from him (yippi and Eureka, this discovery is not less than Archemidies discovery of Bouyancy). He said that it depends on Monsoon only whether the prices will come down or not. But the theory is yet to be testified. Good Monsoon = Price down, Bad Monsoon = Prices up. (As simple as ***) 2. Farmer Suicide - During Mr. Pawars great discovery that food prices solely depends on Monsoon, he also found a remedy for checking Farmer Suicides (the rate is highest in his own state). Good monsoon will result in good crop and will lead to farmer having better earning. This will lead to less farmer suicides. So the conclusion is Good Monsoon = Good crop = Happy farmer = Less Suicide 3. Naxal Problem - This conclusion has not been informed to public but i strongly believe that govt. is not taking any sound step against Naxalites(even after a shameless murder of our more than hundred brother BSF Jawans in the Naxal areas recently) because they have accepted that only monsoon can save them from Naxalites. Everybody knows that in Forest, activity of wild animals are at their lowest in Rainy season. Hence if monsoon is good and long, Govt. can celebrate a long period of peace with Naxalites. Hence the result is: Good monsoon = flooded forests= less Naxal activities = Peace 4. Militant infiltration in Kashmir - On the same grounds as for Naxals heavy monsoon results in flooded rivers in Kashmir, which makes it difficult for militants to cross them and infiltrate in India. I hope that is why Indian govt. has decided to start peace talks with Pakistan in monsoon season(Mr. S M Krishna is going to Pakistan on 15th of July) as they can show a lowered data of infiltration in Kashmir showing their intention to reduce terrorism and indian people can be made fools untill their next attack. Hence: Good Monsoon = flooded rivers = less infiltration = temporary peace 5. Electricity/Water problem - This is quite easy to understand. Good monsoo equals more water in rivers and dams resulting in hydro power plants functioning at their full capacity plus less demand as temperature is lower. So government can show that there is no power/water shortage and they have fullfilled their promises. So. Good monsoon = Full electrcity and no shortage of water. Hence we all should pray for a very good and lengthy Monsoon this year if we want to feel releived and relaxed. I hope Govt. guys are doing the same and who knows a formal announcement may be made on this soon. Are you Praying for a better monsoon?

• Answer:

  You have taken pains to paint a sad situation in as humourously as possible way. Yes, people in govt talk economic jargons to explain difficult situations that are least intelligible to average citizens. They are virtually bamboozled by their analyses and led to think that some weird process is in operation to 'punish' them for the sins (like electing criminals to sanction programmes for their own 'development' rather than people's), in the name of 'economic' phenomena!! On the other hand, more crude politicians like Pawarji go down to simple dismissals of economic problems blaming the monsoons or misreporting by press or menace of global markets etc. They can not tell the fact that their govts have more things to do than look to the common man; that they would not care to allocate even 15% of plan outlays for Agriculture sector on which a substantial population depend for their livelihood etc..! A simple exposure on this: The Ninth FYP allocation for Agri and Allied Activities (Central plus State/ UTs) was Rs 37239 crores against the total of all sectors Rs. 941041 crores, that accounts for a paltry 3.9 %...! And that for X FYP the Agri outlay was Rs. 58933 crores that was hyped as 58% more than the earlier FYP, but its share in the total for all sectors was a mere 3.8 % (lesser share than the previous Five Year Plan)..!! OK., suppose we include the Irrigation and flood control allocations also, is there any great improvement for agriculture? No, by adding Rs 69830 and Rs 103315 crores for the two FYPs under this sector, we get a total of (Agri, AA plus Irrig, FC) 11.4% and 10.6% for the respective Plan periods that is all. In other words, still below 15% of total sectoral allocations! OK., in this scenario what big impact can you expect from the primary sector upon which the fate of the major populaiton depends??!! In this situation of lax seriousness to promote the primary sector what miracle you can expect to happen? See the dismal state of growth achieved in the sector: An analysis of the Average GDP Growth Rates for Overall economy and Agriculture as % per Year at 1999–2000 Price: In the Early reforms period (1991–92 to 1996–97) the GDP growth rate for total Economy was 5.69 % against 3.66 % for Agri and Allied activities (includes mining and fisheries apart from crops and livestock) and 3.68 % for Crops and livestock. In the Ninth Plan (1997–98 to 2001–02) the GR of GDP for total economy was 5.52% (marginal decline) against 2.50 % for Agri and AA (note the sharp reduction from early Reform period) and 2.49 % for Crops and livestock (again significant decline) section. So the 'Reforms' either didn't work for agriculture or was NOT intended for Agriculture at all..!! In the Tenth Plan period (2002–03 to 2006–07) the GR of GDP for total economy was 7.77% (note sharp rise), for Agri & AA 2.47 % (further reduction from IX FYP)and 2.51% for Crops and Livestock (insignificant increase over IX FYP). So the Reforms were de facto intended for other 'profitable' sectors that led to skewed distribution of benefits of development to the few engaged in non agrl (urban) sectors only. Apart from the disinclination to take up major irrigation projects or link existing rivers etc that would incidentally benefit increasing civic / industrial water needs also, or take up the much overdue intervention to ensure FAIR farm gate PRICES for farmers who are exploited by the agents of trade, paying least to the producer and fleecing the consumer also heavily (selling at 5-10 fold of rates they procured from farmers); or to increase the procurement rates at at least 75% rates at which the same products re imported (one aspect of recent sugar scandal) etc, also add to the continuance of rural poverty and farmers owes. The rural literacy levels have increased significantly and people are ready to adopt modern agrl practices but they lack the wherewithal to adopt the technology due to sharp hike in costs of inputs, machinery, energy, labour wages, etc. So it is NOT the monsoon that is the villain, but an UNWILLING govt that is more interested in prosperous trade sector and money markets, rather than the common people, that is the reason behind the overall setbacks of sorts. For plan allocations see : http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/p%E2%80%A6 For GDP growth statistics see: http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/p%E2%80%A6