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Do you think luck is more prevalent than skill in poker?

Does luck or skill win at poker?

  • Curious about how everyone feels about this. If you think poker is part luck and part skill then please specify how much of each plays a role in you winning or losing. Example: 2% luck, 98% skill.

  • Answer:

    Depends on if you're in a tournament or a cash game. Cash game - skill is 90/10 in high limit, 50/50 in low limit. Tournament - skill is only 40/60. Here's the deal: A large part of the skill is knowing when to hold'em and when to fold'em. I.e., playing only when you have the advantage. Law of Large Numbers - A mathematical theorem that says that given enough draws, the percentage of times something happens becomes increasingly close to the probability of the event happening once. Example: I flip a coin once. There's a 50% chance of heads. I flip it 20 times. There's a 62% chance of 8-12 heads (10 +/- 20%) I flip a coin 500 times. There is a 97% chance that there will be between 225 and 275 heads. (250 +/- 10%) WIth 5000 flips, There is a 99.5% chance that there will be between 2400 and 2600 heads (2500 +/- 4%) With more flips, the odds increase, and the spread decreases. Therefore, if you play often enough, the skill will beat luck. But, in a tournament, there aren't enough hands for the skill to shine. A guy can get on a lucky streak for 5-6 hands. ------------------ Here's where the casinos have the edge: Let's say you play 10,000 hands of an even money game. Win 5,000 and you break even. More than that, and you win. But the casino's game is set up so your chances are 49.5/50.5, instead of 50/50. A very modest 1% edge. The odds that the casino isn't ahead after 10,000 hands? 15.6% (about 1 in 6) The odds that the casino isn't ahead after 100,000 hands? With just that 1% edge? 0.08% (Roll 5 dice and get 5 of a kind. No rerolls allowed) Excel formula: =BINOMDIST(100000,100000,0.495,TRUE) - BINOMDIST(50000,100000,0.495,TRUE)

aaron g at Yahoo! Answers Visit the source

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I'd give it an even 50:50.

miso1cat

Well,maybe some luck is need to win pocker game... but i don't really think that a skill is really need to win. one thing I'm sure we need to win poker games is GUTS !!!!! And don't EVER SHOW ur feeling when u has good or bad card. So people can'tknowhow ur real situation is.

trouble maker

All skill...

Steve D

Aaron, Like all good poker questions, the answer is: It depends. Let's take the most popular poker game going right now and take a look - Texas Holdem. Generally speaking, Texas Holdem has a great balance of luck and skill but even within a single type of game - it can vary. Okay, what's the structure? Fixed Limit? It is considered an industry standard that an expert limit player playing at his level (i.e. a $40/$80 player playing $40/$80 not $2/$4) should win about two out of three sessions or about 65% of the time. Note that he (or she) doesn't have to lose as much as he wins on the one occasion in three that he loses but he should still lose once in three times on average. For no-limit, it is an industry standard that an expert player will win four out of five sessions, implying that no-limit has a greater dependency on skill. This is in fact true. In low-limit no-limit (no-limit games characterized by having a maximum amount you can buy in) there is no industry standard because the structure is too new - this structure has only been around for a couple of years and few professionals are playing it. I would estimate that a standard for this game is closer to 39 out of 40 times an expert player should win. Thirty-nine out of 40 winning sessions is not a heavily influenced by luck structure. Much also depends on your competition. Let's say I am the tenth best player in the world - if I am playing against #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, #8 and #9 then I better get lucky. If on the other hand I am the 159,624th best player in the world but am playing against #1,234,567, #37,860,912 etc. then I'm in pretty good shape and the limited skills I do have are going to make me look like a genius against these guys - hence playing more of a role.

awakening1us

This question makes me laugh. Everyone thinks it is mostly skill. I disagree. I think it is more luck then anything. Example. You go all in with pocket kings. Some one calls you with Ace, 4 suited. You are only 20% favorite to win the hand before the flop. That isn't that much. That has nothing to do with skill. O.k there is skill in bluffing, betting, and reading. I will not doubt that. I have seen so many people lose with King, Ace and pocket pairs all the time. Why because someone go lucky and hit something better. Any way I think that it is 60 luck, 40 skill.

Vthokie25

Luck is fickle and will abandon you. Skill is your friend for life. Over the long run, skill will usually win out.

joe b

Skill gives you a 1% advantage over the other players, which is quite a bit. The rest is all luck.

Pancakes

Depends on the player. Experienced: 30% luck, 70% skill Inexperienced: 70% luck, 30% skill

chaser_downer

id agree with 10 percent luck 90 percent skill.... its a complicated game... knowing how to bluff, when to do it, haveing dispipline on your face and movements (not giveing any hints). when to pay. wjem tp raise the bet. when to pass. fold, etc.... its a fun complicated game.

MrBenjamin

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