How can I be really good at deductive reasoning like Sherlock Holmes?

How to get skilled at inductive reasoning?

• Strange and somewhat abstract question. How do I get good at inductive reasoning, like Dr. House or Sherlock Holmes? Any good book recommendations? Any advice would be thankfully accepted.

• Answer:

  Awesome question! Unfortunately, I think if inductive reasoning was as easy as Dr. House and Sherlock Holmes make it seem, just about everyone would use it all the time, and it wouldn't be so very impressive any more. And while I think it takes a certain genius predisposition to be incredibly good at it, like Holmes or House, I think it's also a practical skill that most people can develop, at least to some small capacity. I think the best advice comes from the Master himself. The thing that makes it so difficult is that it's an intuitive process, so there's no real step-by-step method to get good at inductive reasoning. But the general guidelines seem to be: 1.) Observe. It seems obvious, but I think if we really paid attention, we'd be surprised at the sheer amount of detail we tend to miss in our every day lives. A good way to practice this might be to count things like windows or lights in a room; the next time you're bored and sitting around, pull out your cell phone and study it- not just the background or the contacts list, but also the outside of it. What kind of phone is it? Does it have a keyboard? Do any of the keys stick? Are there scratches, marks, any other noticeable features? Make an effort to try to pick up on the more subtle details. 2.) Develop. This is the time to be creative. (And we'll keep using the cell phone example, because it works nicely here.) What can you determine from the data you've collected from your phone? Is it scratch free? If it is, that might be because it's a brand new phone. If it's because you have a case, maybe that indicates a certain amount of foresight or caution on your part. Maybe it's scratch free because you're especially careful with your belongings. See how quickly little things can start to add up to big inferences? Here's the HUGELY important thing about this step: Don't be afraid to sound silly, don't be afraid to come up with incorrect theories. This is the creation process, not the final step. Holmes tells Watson in the Adventure of the Blue Carbuncle that Watson 'cannot' use his methods because Watson is too timid in his own deductive abilities. Any thing you come up with should be considered a step in the right direction- this is the time to generate ideas! 3.) Eliminate. This is where it gets tricky. Go back over everything you've determined. You might find that some of your theories don't actually fit all the facts, and those are the first ones to go. Check over your thoughts again. Are there any contradictory points? If there are, see if they can be eliminated, and if they can't, try to come up with a reason which might allow both things to be true. If you can't, you might want to consider dropping both points entirely. Use Ockham's razor- the simplest solution is most often the correct one. For example, let's say you've discovered that the keyboard on your phone is very easy to use, while the number pad is stiff and difficult to dial. There are a couple of possible solutions to this, but the solution that you text more often than you call is simpler than the solution that there was a manufacturing error, or the solution that the number pad was damaged some other way. 4.) Summarize: Take all the theories you haven't eliminated, string them together into a single, cohesive story. And, of course, practice! This sort of thing isn't so difficult to do, once you get into the habit of it. But it'll take years and years of creativity and patience to be like Dr. House or Mr. Holmes. Good luck, and hope this helped!