What is recession?

What is a "recession" and what is it caused by?

  • How do these causes actually effect the economy (e.g. increased printing of money causes inflation lowering value of dollar). Plus If the loss of the value of the dollar is caused by the increased printing, why don't we just stop? I'm not exactly well educated in the subject and thorough answers would be helpful. Like with BASICS working the way up.

  • Answer:

    First of all, the US government does not just print money to spend. There are two main policies that must be considered. First, fiscal policy the policy of the Federal government spending. Right now we are spending more money than we have coming in.. ie. taxes. The Treasury does not just print more money to cover these deficits.. All the money is borrowed through government bond and so forth. Second, is monetary policy which is complicated. The Federal Reserve bank of the United States is in charge of the money supply. This is where inflation comes into the picture. The Fed has three main goals as it conducts monetary policy. 1. To keep the economy growing at a steady pace. Smooth out the business cycle. 2. To keep inflation low. 3. To instill confidence in the banking industry. The Fed has three main tools that it uses to conduct economic policy. 1. Buying and selling bond on the open market. 2. Influencing interest rate through the Fed rate and Fed funds rate. This is the rate that banks borrow from each other to make up for short capitol ratio. 3. Controlling the Required Reserve Ratio. This is the amount of money banks must keep in reserve. Any of these tools can manipulate the money supply and influence the economy to grow or contract. During times of high economic growth the Fed will increase interest rates to smooth out the business cycle and prevent inflation. During times of low economic growth the Fed will cut rates to increase the money supply and promote economic growth. Right now we are in recession. That mean the Fed will cut interest rates and inflation is very low. Right now inflation should be low, but the only reason for any internal inflation right now would be increasing oil prices. If you are referring to the devaluation of the dollar on the international market, then you are talking about a completely different issue. Trade deficits and low interest rates account for this phenomenon. We are not just printing money. If the US government just printed money we would have hyper inflation and a loaf of bread would cost 20 dollars in about a month. I think a recession technically is 2 quarters of very slow economic growth. So far I am not sure we are in a recession yet. Expect the Fed to lower interest rates even more, increasing the money supply, smoothing out the business cycle and ending the recession. Inflation should be low outside of increasing oil prices. Expect the dollar to be devalued on the open market even more as trade deficits are not decreasing and interest rates are sure to drop. High trade deficits mean there are more dollars over seas to be traded to the US than we have euros or yen to trade back to them. This means US dollars will weaken. Lower interest rates mean foreign investors will shy away from US finacial markets weakening the dollar even more.

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Other answers

A recession is a serious downturn in the market. The cost of living greatly outweighs income and jobs become more scarce. It's the first step towards a depression which is when the people of a land can no longer afford to live, lose their homes and possessions and live in the streets. It's caused by government. Taxation, outrageous spending, excessive regulation, centralized banking, and recalling money from the marketplace or printing excess money, all contribute. The United States has a $9 trillion debt. Almost all of that is owed to ourselves. We have spent more than we have, borrowing from future generations. Eventually that will reach a limit. Government cannot simply recall money or print more without changing the value of what is in circulation. Loans and government spending, or the lack thereof, is how they can alter the money in circulation. We are part of a global economy. The value of the dollar is compared to currency of the rest of the world. Prices of commodities vary based on speculation in the market. It's all about people trying to get rich playing in the stock market. The bulk of the price of oil today is speculation over future prices and availability. People buy and sell stock in things, orange juice, oil, gold, the US dollar. Buying tends to drive prices up, because interest and demand in that item is seen as increasing. The more you want something the more expensive it gets. And the opposite for selling. When it comes to major assets like a home resale value is important. Population grows, loaning money makes good profits for the bank. As long as money is available to loan to the consumer property values increase. As long as you are willing to pay too much for something, somebody is willing to charge too much. But, if you want that house you will pay the going rate, even if it is too high. Then you reach a limit, prices become so overinflated that there isn't enough buyers, isn't enough money to lend, profits fall, banks stop loaning. People that want to buy can't. People that want to sell can't because there's no buyer. Some sellers might be forced to take a loss on their house. Everything is connected. The price of diesel goes up. Absolutely everything got where it is on a truck, that runs on diesel. So the cost of everything goes up. The cost of running a business also goes up. So salaries stay flat while the cost of living rises. That slows consumer spending. Which then slows manufacturing and retail, which then slows trucking and importing, which all puts people out of work, which means fewer people can afford to live....

E. F. Hutton

first we have to learn to recognize it. Until last month, I had a neighbor on each side of me. Two weeks ago, neighbor on the left bailed out of a $400K mortgage, $3500 property tax bill and a $4000 per year homeowners insurance bill. this weekend, the neighbor on the right has made his escape also. One is renting and the other got into a private mortgage deal with a builder who had empty houses and is holding the mortgage. Both empty houses have mortgages that went into short sale for half of their last sold price. That is what the current recession looks like. We will be in a depression when the empty houses mysteriously burn. There are already pockets of depression. You will not become educated fully here. Seek.

Lantern Bearer

A horrible, lying, traitorous President and his minions. It's true, check your history books.

Skeptical Thinker Atheist Too

The basics: Recessions are caused by- Overproduction Too many goods (houses in our case, technically not counted as "goods" in GDP but I'll include them as such for the example) are produced than can be consumed. The excess supply causes factory slowdowns, income cessation and a self-reinforcing downward spiral occurs (people don't work, don't get paid, excess goods and services go unsold leading to more layoffs). Credit Squeeze (what's happening now) Maldistribution of wealth led to too much debt driving the economy until the banks (or foreign lenders as in our case) reach a point where they don't want to lend anymore because there is too much debt.

ideogenetic

In macroeconomics, a recession is a decline in a country's gross domestic product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. In US, the judgment of the business-cycle dating committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research regarding the exact dating of recessions is generally accepted. The NBER has a more general framework for judging recessions: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades. For the past four recessions, the NBER decision has approximately confirmed with the definition involving two consecutive quarters of decline. However the 2000 recession did not involve two consecutive quarters of decline, it was preceded with four quarters of alternating growth and decline. A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy (essentially, a severe depression, or a hyperinflation, depending on the circumstances) is called economic collapse.

Ronnie @ BinBrain.Com

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