How to graph global warming?

Does anyone know of a graph or chart indicating the relative strengths of warming feedbacks ...?

  • ... perhaps something similar to this one for radiative forcing components. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/projects/arcpac/scienceintro.html Something showing the main feedbacks; their relative strengths, levels of uncertainty and whether they are positive or negative, for a given change in radiative forcing or global average temperature. It's just that I find this a useful, concise way to present the data. I can't recall seeing anything along these lines; can anyone help? Or, if there isn't one, why not? Why wouldn't this method be valid? Mike: Just to be clear, it is Figure 1; Global-average radiative forcing (RF) estimates ... that I am referring to. It does include error bars! Yes, I am aware of what LOSU stands for; also the difference between forcings and feedbacks. It is the latter that this question is about. Having said that, thanks for an interesting link. Thanks also to GBF for another.

  • Answer:

    "It's just that I find this a useful, concise way to present the data." I tend to disagree with this statement. If you notice a column titled "LOSU" this stands for "Level of scientific understanding". The only one rated as "high" is greenhouse gasses. All others are medium to low with most being low. And there are quite a few left off the graph which are rated as very low such as: stratospheric water vapor and cosmic rays. When LOSU is low or even medium to low, there should be a large error range. I don't see any error bars in that graph which I think can make it quite misleading since it's simply somebody's guess. Sure you might say that those numbers could be an average or median in a range. But as skeptics have said, the average of a bunch of guesses is just another guess. This IPCC chapter has more info on this: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-9-1.html (Note: You should be aware that feedback and forcing are not the same thing and that graph you link is forcings.) _______________________________________... Edit:" "It does include error bars!" Oops, I had this web page open when I was typing this answer: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-9-3.html _______________________________________... Edit2: It appears I also may have misinterpreted your question. Perhaps you are looking for something like this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/k/q/climate-sensitivity-figure2-lb.jpg From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/areas/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity?media=165

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There are some figures on net forcing in Hansen et al 2011: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf Perhaps the breakdown info is not all that relevant to this paper so it might be included in supplementary info?

Gas By Fannylight

There are some figures on net forcing in Hansen et al 2011: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/13421/2011/acp-11-13421-2011.pdf Perhaps the breakdown info is not all that relevant to this paper so it might be included in supplementary info?

Gas By Fannylight

"It's just that I find this a useful, concise way to present the data." I tend to disagree with this statement. If you notice a column titled "LOSU" this stands for "Level of scientific understanding". The only one rated as "high" is greenhouse gasses. All others are medium to low with most being low. And there are quite a few left off the graph which are rated as very low such as: stratospheric water vapor and cosmic rays. When LOSU is low or even medium to low, there should be a large error range. I don't see any error bars in that graph which I think can make it quite misleading since it's simply somebody's guess. Sure you might say that those numbers could be an average or median in a range. But as skeptics have said, the average of a bunch of guesses is just another guess. This IPCC chapter has more info on this: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-9-1.html (Note: You should be aware that feedback and forcing are not the same thing and that graph you link is forcings.) _______________________________________… Edit:" "It does include error bars!" Oops, I had this web page open when I was typing this answer: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-9-3.html _______________________________________… Edit2: It appears I also may have misinterpreted your question. Perhaps you are looking for something like this: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/k/q/climate-sensitivity-figure2-lb.jpg From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/areas/understanding-climate/climate-sensitivity?media=165

Ottawa Mike

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