Oxfam around the world?

What percentage of the world has made a phone call?

• What percentage of the world has made a phone call? In 1995, in a survey of telecommunications by The Economist magazine, the phrase "half the world's population has never made a phone call" first appeared (attributed to Richard Klugman or Paine Webber). [http://userpage.fu-berlin.de/~dittbern/Telekom/Docs/Death_of_distance.html] Since then, the phrase has taken on a life of its own, having been attributed variously to Kofi Annan, Thabo Mbeki, and Charles Lee, former CEO of GTE. Google shows hundreds of matches on the phrase, though almost none of them attribute Klugman. It is still being used in current debates (e.g. in Davos coverage this year, http://www.earthtimes.org/feb/davos2002tacklingfeb2_02.htm, http://www.oxfam.org.hk/english/resource/document/yearwrap21.shtml). In some cases the statistic is actually increased, as with a speech from April of this year inflating the figure to "most of the world" (http://www.un.org/ga/coi/statements02/Indonesia.htm) or an editorial from May of 2001 claiming that an astonishing 80% of the world has never made a phone call. (http://www.thejournal.com/magazine/vault/A3442.cfm) Note that the Economist, the most careful of magazines, did not even present the original figure as factual, but rather took it as an attributed quote. Nevertheless, if we take the figure as a correct state of the telecosm in mid-1995, the figure can no longer be correct, as the last 7 years have seen considerable growth in teledensity in the developing world. So, what approximate percentage of the world has now made a phone call by mid-2002? -clay

• Answer:

  Hi Clay! Interesting question, and after much searching and finding many of the same roadblocks as the Commenters before me, I must say that I have concluded the obvious: The original statement: ..."half the world's population has never made a phone call..." ...was used for shock value, and from your links and my own observations and long search, I must say it was successful! Richard Klugman or Paine Webber (?) must have only used 2 or 3 criteria in order to come to this [wild] undocumentable conclusion. There are far too many other variables to state with any measurable degree of accuracy just how many people on the planet have used a telephone. I know you must realize this, and I suspect you're hoping someone will go out on a limb and entertain you with a stab in the dark... All kidding aside, I took your inquiry very seriously and gave it my absolute best effort. Keep in mind that there is no way to determine the actual correct number/percentage, but using the Internet and a healthy dose of patience and common sense, I was able to arrive at what I consider to be a well researched and thought out response that is very close to whatever the "real" number IS. I don't want to make you wait to the end of my long explanation and documentation to give you my answer, so here it is: ____________________________________________________________________ QUESTION: ..."what approximate percentage of the world has now made a phone call by mid-2002?..." ANSWER: Approximately 67.28755% ____________________________________________________________________ This was a very interesting question to research, and it's questions like this one that is the reason I love Internet Research. I learn not one new thing, but about 20-25 new things, every single day. Please keep in mind that I'm positive there are alternate statistics and figures that would or could substantially change this final result by a few million, and as mvguy-ga pointed out -- many people could cite different results, however I am happy with the number. After reading your links and considering your commentary with the question, it sounds about right. This slide illustrates the considerable growth in Global Teledensity that you mentioned: Teledensity Evolution - Mainlines By Region http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/irwp/events/braga_presentation/sld005.htm Indeed, the exact international telephone subscriber and telephone access/usage statistics are difficult to locate, however they are available on the Internet. What is not measurable or available is the number of people that use someone else's telephone, or only use payphones, so my factual answer will be limited to installed telephones and cellular phones. When I began this hunt I wasn't going to consider cell phones but as the day wore on I began to realize that in developing countries many population segments are now able to use a phone because of cellular service. There is no way to run a landline but there is a huge cellular phone market that caters to areas of the world that don't have regular telephone service within hundreds of miles, let alone a couple miles. I don't think the number of cellular subscribers in developing countries/rural areas that have NEVER used a landline is high enough to substantially change the figure considering *most* cellular users are in developed countries. I also don't think business telephones would change the number too much, --in my humble opinion, because anyone that has used a telephone at work has also used a telephone somewhere else that is covered in my guestimate below. I don't know if it's possible to estimate the number of people that don't have access to a phone but have borrowed one --or use public telephones exclusively, however by combining statistics and common sense with worldwide family size/housing statistics -as reported to the United Nations, I think a fair guestimate can be determined. Please forgive the fact that not all the numbers given here are recent or even from the same year, or source. International statistics are only as accurate as the last census or data gathering, and not all countries conduct censuses regularly. I used the most recent figures I could find in every case. Reference this link at the United Nations on the availability of recent census data worldwide: Population and housing census dates (Worldwide) http://www.un.org/depts/unsd/demog/cendate/index.html To arrive at an educated guestimate for you I decided to use the planet's population and the number of installed telephone lines, both fairly reliable figures, and then rationally consider how to determine how many other people [beyond the telephone subscriber] --that don't have a telephone of their own have used a subscribers, or public telephones. Global Teledensity as of mid 2001 - 12.5% (10% increase over 2000) SOURCE: BuddeComm Market Report http://www.budde.com.au/Static/PressReleases/ESwireless.html This figure includes cellular subscribers. Using that same 10% increase we arrive at 13.75% in 2002 Number of main telephone lines/subscribers worldwide - 1,115,000,000(**below) (2002) SOURCE: Key Global Telecom Indicators for the World Telecommunication Service Sector http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/KeyTelecom99.html This figure does not include cellular subscribers. At this stage we can safely conclude that between 13.75% and 17.9% of the world's population is a telephone subscriber, and has used said telephone. I am going to split the difference in the 2 numbers and call it 15.825% global teledensity. Number of people on the planet - 6,228,772,626 (note, this changes daily) SOURCE: World POPClock Projection - US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/popclock To attempt to answer your question, one must estimate how many people that don't have their own telephone have used someone else's phone or a public telephone. I think it is safe to assume that --at a minimum, all members in a household with a telephone installed would have used that telephone too. Moving along... I found a Web site that details the average number of rooms per dwelling in 6 different developed countries: Comparative International Statistics Average number of rooms per family dwelling - worldwide: 4.465 http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/figures/zuhyou/1690.xls By averaging these numbers we get 4.465 rooms per dwelling. I am comfortable with this figure considering undeveloped countries are less likely to have telephones installed or the means to purchase and subscribe to cellular service. Next we have the United Nations figures on the average number of persons per room in a family dwelling, internationally: Average number of persons per room - worldwide - 1.096 SOURCE: United Nations Statistics Division - Indicators on housing http://www.un.org/depts/unsd/social/housing.htm#per 4.465 X 1.096 = 4.89364 people per dwelling, worldwide. I feel the best way to arrive at the answer from here is to take 13.75% of the world population of 6,228,772,626 and multiply it by the average number of people per dwelling, worldwide: 4.89364. This method makes the large assumption that the teledensity figure assumes each telephone accounted for --is in fact-- in a family dwelling. Population X World Teledensity: 6,228,772,626 X 13.75% = 856,456,236.075 Result X # persons likely to use each phone: 856,456,236.075 X 4.89364 = 4,191,188,495.1 Then, we can figure what this percentage result is of the original population. 6,228,772,626 - 4,191,188,495.1 = 67.28755% ** (from above) See the same statistic (1,115,000,000) broken down by country. Please note that although the countries are listed separately there are totals at the bottom. Although I used the bottom line number, a more accurate estimate could be determined by considering each countries average family-size with their actual phone line subscriber density numbers. Direct links to hard numbers on installed phone lines by country: Teledensity of Countries/Territories - (main telephone lines per 100 inhabitants) http://www.itu.int/itudoc/itu-t/com3/focus/72404.html (NOTE: These next 2 files are in PDF Format, if you need to you can download Adobe here: http://www.adobe.com/products/acrobat/readstep.html ) Basic indicators: Population, GDP, total telephone subscribers and total telephone subscribers per 100 people - Year: 2001 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/basic01.pdf Main telephone lines, subscribers per 100 people - Year: 2001 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/at_glance/main01.pdf I found the 2 above links here: International Telecommunication Union - Free Statistics http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/ This next link is mainly commentary with some charts and combines a discussion of International communication in relation to Internet access with telephone line penetration and usage. Internet access is most easily measured by looking at telephone line penetration per capita, so this is the avenue that finally garnered results. This link succeeds in explaining the WHY of low percentages of access to communication devices: Internet and Telephone. Telecom Reform - Interpreting Current Statistics http://www.telecomreform.net/PDF_files/Statistics_tr-1.pdf ..."For most of the world, the real digital divide is what is shown in Figure 1 above ­ access to the telecom network. The statistics on this divide are of higher quality and cover a much longer time period. They clearly document the fundamental barrier to the participation of most of the world in any telecom network services. Common sense suggests that low-income levels in poor countries will limit participation in any network service. However, the existence of ten-year waiting lists for service; the stunning success of prepaid mobile service in poor, previously unserved areas of poor countries; and experiences..." (click link to continue sentence, bottom of page 6) Other links of interest that I found in my search: Plunkett Research, Ltd. - Telecommunications Industry Statistics http://www.plunkettresearch.com/telecommunications/telecom_statistics.htm Plunkett's Telecommunications Industry Almanac (buy the book) http://www.plunkettresearch.com/telecommunications/telecom_almanac.htm Includes basic telecommunications usage statistics, worldwide, by nation. ..."This massive reference book's market research section provides complete access to the U.S. telecommunications and communications industry. This section includes 19 major statistical tables covering everything from the world's top fixed line and wireless service providers, to the number of telephone subscribers worldwide, to Telecommunications Equipment Estimates and Forecasts. Finally, in this massive, carefully-researched 525 page volume, you will receive an abundance of data on: national and global telecommunications statistics, new telecommunications technology, telecommunications market forecasts, telecommunications trends and leading telecommunications companies..." World Telecommunication Indicators Database (annual subscription or single-use fee applies) http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/publications/world/world.html ..."The World Telecommunication Indicators Database contains time series data for the years 1960, 1965, 1970 and annually from 1975-2001 for around 80 sets of telecommunication statistics (updated) covering telephone network size and dimension, mobile services, quality of service, traffic, staff, tariffs, revenue and investment. Selected demographic, macro-economic, broadcasting and information technology statistics are also included. Data for over 200 economies are available..." Search terms used at Google: telephone +usage +worldwide +statistics telephone +usage +global +statistics "never made a telephone call" "telephone usage statistics" +global "telephone usage" +global "telephone usage" +worldwide "global telephone usage" "worldwide telephone usage" "telephone usage" international Teleaccessibility +global Telephone +access +demographics teledensity +global And many other combinations of the above words... I hope this gives you food for thought! Thanks for the mental workout! Cynthia