What Is GDP?

What percentage of economists and futurists have predicted that China's GDP will exceed US GDP by 2030?

• As an American non-Mandarin reader/speaker, I only see the predictions in the US press that say China's GDP will exceed the US by 2030. I wonder if I am experiencing observer bias, because only this would be both suprising and near term enough to meet the editor's filter for news. I'm wondering if there are any economists or futurists who have said, "China's GDP will never exceed US GDP" or "China's GDP will not exceed US GDP before 2030".

• Answer:

  I would assume virtually all of them. It is very difficult to come up with a story that would make the over-taking as late as 2030 (eg if China GDP slowed from 9% to 5%, and USA accelerated to an almost unprecedented 4%, it still happens by 2025). There is calaculator on The Economist that lets you plug in your own values to see. http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/12/save_date EDIT The above discusses total GDP. On a percapita basis it will take much longer, but I was staggered to read that the richest regions in China have already overtaken the poorest regions in many developed countries, and will start overtaking US states (on a per capita basis) by 2015 GDP per head at PPP over a quarter of regions in Britain and Italy and one-tenth of those in Germany will this year have a lower GDP per head than the municipality of Shanghai. All the American states remain richer, but Shanghai looks set to overtake Mississippi by 2015; within ten years half of all the states, including Florida, Michigan and Ohio, could have a GDP per head lower than Shanghai and Beijing. http://www.economist.com/node/18332880?story_id=18332880