Will the Union State of Russia and Belarus ever be fully realized and if so, will a new "Russian Empire" arise with interest Ukraine and the Commonwealth of Independent States?
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In light of the the 2010 Presidential Election in Belarus and the friendlier ties between Lukashenko and Moscow, can a federal/supranational entity be agreed upon with full political, social and economic integration? The current clauses for a union parliament and union court have yet to be established, based of the the existing Treaty on the Creation of a Union State. A customs union is currently in place between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Ukraine, with its current government's Russian perspective, may join in the coming year. Close ties CIS point towards integration as well.
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Answer:
In the specific case of Belarus, at the moment is not a possibility, because of the latest events. Like the ban on diary belarussian products and the discussion of gas and oil taxes on russia oil. Although Russia has interest in controling Belarus and belarussian people wouldn't mind to be integrated. But the possibility is far from what it was in the late 90's and early 2000's. Lukashenko is playing on both sides of EU and Russia, to see what he gains. But the latest elections have decreased his relations with EU. The current economic state of Ukraine and the central asian countries from the former USSR, may too lead them in a closer customs union with Russia. The next few years will determine what will happen. And the rise of the price on oil, gaz and metal ore and general raw materials will give Russia the power to become, once again, a super power, and occupy her rightfully place on international scene.
VirgÃlio Dias at Quora Visit the source
Other answers
No, not unless US loses the Cold War 2.0[1], which is highly unlikely. While Lukashenko is in power, he will be opposing such takeover because in the united state his role would be to bring coffees. That is the reason he criticized annexation of Crimea - he read the writing on the wall that he was next. However, Russia's chances to maidan Lukashenko are zero - they tried it in Donetsk, you saw the results. When he is gone, his successor will be maidaned by pro-EU forces - hopefully something good comes out of that. [1]
Alex Jouravlev
Even a Russia-Belarus union seems unlikely. Belarus' Lukashenko has http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/belarus-says-russias-annexation-of-crimea-sets-a-bad-precedent/496633.html, notably, and hasn't yet recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as separate from Georgia. Even though in many respects Belarus http://belarusdigest.com/story/why-belarus-not-ukraine-16368--especially in being large Russophone and eastern oriented--there's still http://belarusdigest.com/story/will-belarus-last-long-17549 to make the prospect of absorption into a greater Russian state unpopular. (To say nothing of the interest of Belarus' leadership in continuing to run an independent state, not an autonomous republic never mind a collection of provinces.) Kazakhstan is even less likely to accept absorption into a Russian empire. To a hugely greater extent than Belarus, Kazakhstan's government since independence has actively sought to re-Russify, boosting the status of the Kazakh language, encouraging the immigration of ethnic Kazakhs from neighbouring countries while doing little to stop Russophone emigration, and trying to develop Kazakhstan's profile internationally through building ties with China and other countries. Kazakhstan may well be cooperating with Russia as it serves Kazakhstanis' interests, but submersion into a greater Russia is even less likely. The countries that are associating with Russia--Belarus and Kazakhstan being the most notable, but Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan being more recenbt additions--are doing so because a Russian alliance serves their interests. (For the last three countries particularly, the fate of their immigrants in Russia matters hugely, while Armenia is of course concerned with Azerbaijan.) If it stopped serving their interests, they would stop.
Randy McDonald
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