What sort of market share and niche will Harvard, MIT, and other top universities obtain in the online education market?
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Answer:
The online education market is still very nascent. "Online education" is also a very broad arena, so I'm going to focus on the issues relating to "college degree level education." Since you link to "drop-out" rates, the first thing to note is that many people taking online courses at the moment are doing so for leisure interest. For such people, the "completion certificate" is no more important than if they were reading a book. In the "college degree" arena, there are a number of issues yet to be truly worked out. For example: What does an institution like Harvard or MIT get out of providing online education? Why would it be something they truly invest in, as opposed to experiment with for reasons connected to innovation or philanthropy? Related but worth calling out separately: Can an online education provide the credentialling and signalling value of an offline education? If so, what further developments are required to make that happen? Key issues here: certification and quality control - especially when you get away from the subjects that are easily computerised. Why would top institutions try to be anything other than "elite", "niche" players in online education? Is there a meaningful reason to be even thinking about market share as an appropriate analysis metric?
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