If Scots vote for Scottish independence from the United Kingdom, will the European Union refuse admittance to an independent Scotland until and unless it qualifies the way all other petitioner nations have had to?
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How difficult would such qualification be? How many years would it take for Scotland to qualify for admittance into the European Union? What would be the effect on the Scottish economy and of the loss of the benefits it accrues as a constituent country of the United Kingdom already being a full and senior member-nation of the European Union?
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Answer:
I agree with Joe that the problem is entirely political. However I don't agree with the explanation. The problem is that because of independence movements in other European Union countries, these countries will try to veto Scotland from joining the European Union because they are afraid Scotland's independence would set a precedent for those regions, no matter whether Scotland qualified for being a member or not. I actually think that Scotland would almost immediately be qualified for joining the European Union. The country that's almost certain to cause Scotland problems with joining is Spain, though there are many countries within the European Union with (smaller) independence movements.
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Other answers
Scotland would qualify easily, and a fast-track case could easily be made (as long as other countries did not formally object); the problems would be cost and currency/trade. Cost: 1. The UK gets a rebate on its 'fees'. It's not a very good rebate, and in return it gets reduced access to EU funding for projects. Losing the rebate and getting properly stuck in to getting EU funding for things might be beneficial to Scotland in the medium to long term, but in the short term it would hurt financially. And there is really no good reason for allowing Scotland a rebate if (say) Poland doesn't get one. Currency/Trade: 1. New EU accessions countries are bound to accept the Euro. Scotland has not been keen on this; but there's a contradiction between wanting to be part of the EU and not wanting the Euro. There's no good reason at all for the EU to accept accession without the Euro: the only country for which this would be an issue is the UK, and as a non-Euro country it doesn't have much say in the affairs of the Eurozone. 2. New accession countries are legally bound to become part of the Schengen agreement. The UK is not in Schengen, and nor is Ireland (and the UK and Ireland have land borders with each other but with no other state). With the current terrorism threat and immigration concerns, there is no way that Ireland or the UK is going to adopt Schengen more fully in the foreseeable future. With Scotland entering in the Schengen area, it would be necessary to erect controls on the England/Scotland border. - The combination of currency exchange costs and border controls will have a very negative effect on cross-border UK/Scotland trade. Scotland is currently heavily dependent on that trade. Any 'opt-out' for Euro or Schengen membership would need to be negotiated. There are precedents, but only as short-term arrangements; and with some EU countries less than happy with the prospect of secessionist regions following Scotland's line, and a rUK government with no interest in negotiating arrangements for Scotland which disadvantage rUK, there's no good reason to assume any concessions would be available. These are, of course, exactly the issues the pro-independence campaign have been desperate to avoid discussing.
David Aldred
It wouldn't be difficult for Scotland to technically qualify for European Union membership, since by 2014 the territory of Scotland will have been a territory of the EU and its predecessor organizations for 41 years. Scotland has been implementing the acquis communautaire throughout this time period, and I would be very surprised if an independent Scotlnd did not live up to the political criteria of stable democracy or firm rule of law. In these critical respects, a future independent Scotland would be far ahead of countries like Turkey or Ukraine, which have not been implementing the acquis communtaire and which have sizable economic and political issues aside. Problems surrounding an independent Scotland's membership in the European Union have little to no relation to Scotland's ability to implement the norms of the EU. Rather, it's problems are political problems. This particular situation--a region of an EU member-state declaring independence, but wanting to be part of the European Union as a member-state in its own right--is something that has no happened before. The European Union would have to come up with an altogether new response to this situation. I think that generally the EU would like to avoid losing Scotland--it was already part of the EU, its government would like to stay part of the EU, there are five million EU citiens living there--but politics could complicate things. The British response will be key, as will be the Spanish response.
Randy McDonald
I foresee no problems with them staying in the EU. The EU is full of people justifying it's existence and their jobs. They will never lose a willing participant. But what the question should be is. What will Scotland contribute to the EU. I am extremely pro EU but I do believe that is is growing too fast and inviting too many people to a party who bring nothing but drink the others beer.
Steve Black
The problem is entirely political. The EU won't want to lose Scotland. So it will be about finding some kind of legal fudge to get Scotland included as soon as possible. Something the EU is good at. EU membership is one of the sillier scare stories in the EU debate, in general if the states involved want it to happen it will. It would make no sense to shrink the EU. EU membership will happen either immediately on independence or within months. Even if it doesn't Scotland will get associate status just like Norway. Of course leaving the EU would be a bad idea and be bad for the Scottish economy but it isn't going to happen.
Joe Geronimo Martinez
Thing is, Scotland having been part of the EU since the 70's already has EU legislation etc embedded into Scots law, it is more or less, good to go. Unlike some other applicant nations, it would meet the criteria from day one. There may be some humming and hawing from Spain and one or two other States but at the end of the day, Scotland, an independent, free Scotland will be admitted into the EU. Until it was, 18 months, 24 months, it could apply for membership of the EEA, just as Iceland and Norway have. It's essentially like being in the EU but not in the EU.
Marti Smith
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