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What are the estimated odds of Argentina beating Germany?

  • I'm really intent on betting on Argentina to win all the way but I'm afraid that history would repeat itself and Argentina and Germany would face each other in a penalty shootout once more, just like in 1990, and with Argentina losing. So Argentina should find a way to win in full-time, can they do it? I sure hope they can, what are your thoughts?

  • Answer:

    All of the betting companies hugely favorite Germany: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/germany-v-argentina/winner For example, right now, Bet365 puts Germany winning at 13/10, compared to 5/2 for Argentina. It's a bit complicated because these companies also take bet for a draw which means they don't count the penalty shootouts. However, I think Germany is even more favorited in the case of shootouts because they have an extremely good goalkeeper and history on their side. Thus, I would think that, according to these companies, the odd that Germany taking the world cup is at least 2:1. The odd would change with players recovering from or suffering injuries in the next few days. If Di Maria recovers well, the odd of Argentina winning will be boosted a bit. The same would happen if Hummel continues to struggle with his injury. Also, Messi makes Argentina's chance quite unpredictable. He has played very well but still not Maradona-well. He is certainly capable. If he decides to step up and make the final the defining match of his career, Argentina's chance would be boosted by 10 times. (I know that means their chance of winning would be more than 300% which is nonsense but when Messi plays at his full ability, nothing makes any sense.) * As a side note, Argentina didn't lose to Germany in the penalty shootouts in 1990. Germany was wrongly awarded a penalty at the 86th minutes and won by it. However, no one besides the Argentines felt bad about that penalty. In that tournament, Argentina was so utterly defensive and boring that every neutral fan thought that it would be a disaster if they win the world cup.

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Pretty big. Argentina won't blackout as Brazil did. Higuain and Messi can make Neuer have a hard time. It will be a great match.

Thassae Santos

I want to say the odds are high. Believe me I want to, primarily because of Messi. They guy has proven himself time and again and a world cup trophy is the only thing left to win for him. But here's the deal, this world cup has mostly been about the midfield. Argentina is definitely way better when it comes to attack but they're weak in defensive midfield and that's where Germany takes an edge. I don't hold the opinion like many others that Argentina is a one man show. Messi hasn't scored past the group stage and yet they're in the finals, hello! To give it a number I'd say Argentina has 40% chances of winning this thing. Also, if this game goes to penalties, I am not sure how much of that 40 will hold. It's the Germans after all.

Shubham Choudhary

Attack         ARG  > GER Midfield       ARG  < GER Defense      ARG  < GER Goalkeeper  ARG  < GER The game will be decide in midfield...It will be a monumental task to control the midfield against Schweinsteiger, Khedira, Kroos, Oezil and Muller. Mascherano was terrific against the Dutch, he'll have to produce something similar to keep Germans under control. Germany's negative point is their slow defence, Argentina can win if Messi & Co could exploit that.

Anonymous

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