IndiaâChina Relations: How does Indian Army thinks to reciprocate so that it does not create extreme consequences leading to war? How that limit is decided?
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Taking into consideration the present day scenario between India and China(month:may 2013), when china is intruding into the Indian boundary. Main Questions- --""How does Indian Army thinks to reciprocate(with the only aim to push back the chinese intrusion) so that it does not create extreme consequences leading to war?"" --""How that limit is decided(intensity to reciprocate)?"" India can obviously kill all the chinese soldiers(50 or 100 ,in Indian boundary ) if it attacks suddenly with surprise (but this can only be given a thought, every one knows the reason why)!!! Once i met an Indian Air Force pilot in train(almost a year ago), we talked a lot. He told me that he has been to "joint military exercise between india and china". When I asked him "what according to you is the ground realities of preparedness of Indian Air force as compared to China". Then I was rather scared to listen to his answer. He replied that "China is about 4 to 5 times stronger than us. What ever civilians think/talk about the fact of the weapons, is only on papers and the quality difference between the weapons can only be felt and can't be written on papers and this all data reaches the civilians through the rooms of the political offices in India. India stands no where in front of China." At last he added that ""China hides a lot of fact about its ammunition to surprise the enemy. If taken that into consideration chinese become 10 times stronger than us."" (and thus an analogy can be drawn that what would happen if i meet a soldier of the other two wings i.e. army and navy) I have heard "Honarable General" G. D. Bakshi accepting these points. This is the main cause of asking this question. Thanks
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Answer:
1) 3:1 ratio. This is a magic number that was thrown around by many "experts" during Parakram, after 26/11 and so on. The idea is that, to make consequential territorial gains, the attacker has to create and sustain a 3:1 advantage in firepower, manpower etc. (including force-multipliers) along a substantial section of the ICB (India-China Border.) This will enable the attacker to grind down the border by attrition. So the point is: what is true for Pakistan with respect to India, must be true for India with respect to China also no? PLA is not going to make any consequential territorial gains unless they can build up and maintain a 3:1 force advantage at chosen points along the border. If the IA can hold down this ratio to 3:2 or even 2:1, PLA can't make significant inroads. We know that PLA has a far better infrastructure to rely on for deployment. Yet, it is difficult to believe the IA's logistics are so incompetent as to be unable to prevent the buildup and maintenance of such a huge ratio at any point along the border. So ideally, at the first rung of the escalation ladder, we have Indian and Chinese troops deployed in all theatres of activity but with the Chinese never enjoying the 3:1 ratio at any point. Artillery and rocket duels take place, skirmishes occur, but PLA cannot get anywhere. IA can hold most territory, and regain whatever is lost in isolated Chinese thrusts. 2) The second rung of the escalation ladder involves what may need to be done in order to prevent PLA from gaining and maintaining a 3:1 advantage at any point along the LAC/ICB. A major force-multiplier for the IA is the IAF. Two major disadvantages for the PLA are (a) long supply lines vulnerable to interdiction, that must be held open if they have any hope of maintaining 3:1 advantage on the LAC/ICB. (b) high-altitude airfields in Tibet decrease the payload of flights that have to take off so far above sea level. So the key question is: can India prevent China from enjoying 3:1 advantage along the border, WITHOUT using the IAF to hit logistical nuclei and arteries deep inside Chengdu MR? Can we fight a "purely defensive" air war, as in Kargil, never crossing the LAC/ICB to any significant extent, and yet prevent PLA from achieving 3:1 advantage? Because if we do use IAF in this manner we are giving an opening for China to escalate to its own second rung of the escalation ladder. This is the use of thousands MRBMs deployed in Tibet to hit a large swath of military, logistics, economic and possibly civilian targets all across north and northeast India. At this point we start taking economic hits at a higher order of magnitude than what would be required to merely sustain the IA presence along the LAC/ICB. Even at this second level of escalation, PLA in general would not be able to build up a 3:1 advantage at many points along the LAC/ICB. However, given severe infrastructural damage that their missile strikes will be able to inflict, they MAY be able to achieve a 3:1 advantage at one or very few select points along the LAC/ICB, from where they will launch the next level of escalation in the hope of ending the war in their favour. 3) The third level of escalation will probably be represented by a swift, massive Chinese offensive to seize a substantial chunk of Indian territory, such as a city (Tawang, Leh, Gangtok, or Itanagar most likely... deeper targets such as Gauhati or Siliguri possibly) and end the war on their terms. PLA might attempt to recapitulate the Russian victory over Georgia (2008) where, once the Russians and their allied militias had seized the city of Tskhinvali, it was all over but the hand-wringing and Georgia virtually had to give up any claims to Abkhazia. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia-Georgia_war Of course, India is not Georgia, but the morale shock of losing a high-profile target like a city, combined with the increasing economic stress of (a) deployment maintenance (b) losses to Chinese missiles across N/NE India might destroy the Indian will to continue the fight and force the GOI to sue for peace on China's terms. At this point India has very few options. There is no chance of seizing a Chinese city of comparable size; we are simply not equipped to mount a drive to Lhasa even at the opening stages of a war let alone after having exhausted ourselves to the point where PRC has taken an Indian city. i) We can dig in and hang on, hemorrhaging wealth, for a sustained war of attrition and covert ops to unseat the Chinese from the city they grab. Even an "asymmetric" war so to speak. ii) We can attempt to expand our airstrikes to Chinese cities within range. Lanzhou, Chengdu, Kunming possibly though not likely. However, if there has been a significant air war by this point in the game, we may not have the assets to sustain any such campaign. iii) We can gamble very high stakes, and try to make a credible show of escalating to nuclear exchange if the Chinese don't vacate whatever city they have captured. Most likely we will do none of these, but sue for peace on very humiliating terms. 4) It is therefore of utmost importance that the Chinese never manage to grab and hold on to any substantial chunk of Indian territory, especially a city, for any significant amount of time. In terms of a time scale India would be prepared to fight this war for longer than a month, possibly two. However, China will begin to look less indefatigable, more vulnerable, the longer the war goes on and no significant gains can be claimed. Consider the China-Vietnam conflict http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_War The Chinese were able to capture the heights of Lang Son, virtually surrounding the capital of Hanoi. Their aim was to try and force the Viets to draw in VA units that were then deployed in Cambodia, where they were maintaining security after having deposed a pro-Beijing dictatorship. The Viets saw through the Chinese plan after the Russians shared satellite data with them regarding the PLA deployment. They did not come out and fight any major engagements with the PLA, but used guerilla tactics very effectively, killing over 70,000 Chinese. Meanwhile the deployment in Cambodia was kept intact, and major conventional units (upto 300,000 VA troops) concentrated for the defense of Hanoi rather than trying to take back the Lang Son heights. PLA was hurting from the guerilla hits, and realized they did not have the strength to ensure a victory in Hanoi without humiliating losses... so they declared "lesson has been taught, road to Hanoi is open", turned tail and left. The reinforcement of cities and towns will be critical, more so than the prevention of wilderness land grabs by the PLA. We should not spread ourselves thin trying to defend every square inch of wilderness terrain (like the TSPA in Bangladesh) but ensure that the Chinese never take a populated area; meanwhile, guerilla tactics can be used to unsettle Chinese deployments on wilderness terrain within Indian territory. The question is not just how to make the war more costly for China, but how to dig in for a long fight that will be least costly to ourselves. IF we can dig in and hang on, time is definitely on our side; and if we do it without overt escalation on anticipated rungs of the ladder, using asymmetric warfare wherever possible, China will find itself in a position where it can either escalate to a new order of conflict (large-scale missile/air strikes on Indian cities, etc.) that risks nuclear exchange, or it has to pull up stakes and go home. Loss of face will mount every day that it sits on Indian territory taking losses while not making any significant gain. This is the point that we must push the Chinese to. 5) At the present time there will be NO major conventional involvement from Pakistan, simply because the US is in Afghanistan and (for their own interests) will GUBO the Pakis into avoiding any significant conventional misadventure. However, there is no doubt the Pakis will do everything they can to give China asymmetric warfare support (upto and including Kargil-type grabs if they can.) They will activate all their proxies in J&K to create chaos in the IA's rear, sow FUD, disrupt supply lines such as the Srinagar-Leh highway etc. This will be no more than a headache for us to deal with in the larger scheme of things, but we should anticipate that it will be there.
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Other answers
It doesn't need to. Due to the geography of Arunachal, all India needs is to maintain a sufficient deterrent to discourage China from attempting to take Arunachal by force.This can be significantly smaller than China's buildup on its side - and has been historically true all the way since the 1950s - India only defends where land invasions are feasible and leaves the East to diplomacy.In a hypothetical scenario - lets say China invades and defeats India, which is certainly possible given the higher overall buildup/forces.Now how would they sustain it - India would have been pushed all the way down to the Assam plains - where there is considerable room to amass its forces. China would be holding on to Arunachal and would either need to pack the tiny region with enough weaponry to forever withstand India's (thus ruining the hilly state), or be able to move it from the TAR at an instant's notice. While its side of the TAR in that region is flatter than Arunachal, and amenable to moving equipment by road, it would still need to be able to push it over the mountains. This was basically the story in 1962 when India was preparing to retaliate and troops were acclimatizing after the initial shock, when China withdrew to a ceasefire line - unilaterally.The point is that - its whats after the war that's unsustainable, is what prevents China from waging the war. A similar dynamic exists in Kashmir where India can't win without marching into West Punjab.
Prateek Kumar
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