What is the true current rate of inflation in the U.S.?

People tend to overestimate inflation due to selection bias. We notice  when prices go up, but not when prices stay the same or go down. I've  been keeping track of all my expenses since 2007 and over the last five  years my expenses have not drastically changed. During most months, my  groceries cost between $100 and $125. If inflation were 10%, my grocery  bill should be $180 to $220 per month. Looking at places I've lived in  the past, it seems rents have gone up since I left, but there are still  places available that would have been in my price range at the time I  lived there. Until I observe otherwise, I think the CPI calculation is  pretty close to the inflation I've experienced. There is an interesting paper about true inflation and perceived  inflation. After the euro was introduced, perceptions of price inflation  soared in Italy. To see if these perceptions were true, researchers  look at the amount of money withdrawn from ATMs every month. Their  premise was that, if inflation is high, people who use ATMs would have  to withdraw more money each month to meet regular expenses. What they  found was that the monthly increase in ATM withdraws matched very  closely to the official annual inflation rate (2-3%) not the perceived  annual inflation rate (6-7%). The  paper was "Did Prices Really Soar after the Euro Cash Changeover?  Evidence from ATM Withdrawals" by Paolo Angelinia and Francesco Lippib  for anyone who cares to read it.