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Where can I find examples of a U-Shaped distribution?

  • I'm reviewing a document that refers to a 'U-Squared' distribution as one where the random variable is bunched equally at the limits +/- L with nothing in between. I would be interested in understanding more about this distribution and finding some real-world examples but I've had no luck finding any reference material on this. I'm aware of the U shaped distribution but am particularly interested in determining if 'U-Squared' is recognised.   Any links or papers would be welcome.

  • Answer:

    You should look at 5-star ranking systems. For example look at these (hilarious) reviews for the http://www.amazon.com/BIC-Cristal-1-0mm-Black-MSLP16-Blk/dp/B004F9QBE6 Source - [1] This is probably one reason why YouTube switched their five-star system to a likes/dislikes system. The most popular star rating on YouTube was 5. People also gave 1 star ratings, but very few people gave 2-4 star ratings. (see graph) [2] Source - [2] Some possible explanations for this are: Vote Stuffing - Some people are more interested in changing the average rating for an item rather than give their true opinion on it. (http://pro.imdb.com/help/show_leaf?votes) Selection Bias - As mentioned in the comments, people who would vote 2-4 don't have a strong enough desire to represent themselves in the dataset. Controversiality - Some things are just naturally controversial. Here's a one-page http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/0470011815.b2a15171/abstract The paper describes how U-shaped distributions can come into play. Variables having U-shaped distributions, such as the Barthel index, are sometimes referred to in the statistical/medical literature as bounded scores; that is, scores bounded below and above, in which the bounds can and will be attained in a nontrivial proportion of the population. [2] The paper mentions the Barthel Index, a measure of the ability of a patient to perform daily activities. This is a really nice example. The paper's definition of bounded score seems to capture very well how U-shaped distributions can arise: when the distribution is bounded and the extremes are often realized. Source - [3] [1] - http://www.amazon.com/BIC-Cristal-1-0mm-Black-MSLP16-Blk/dp/B004F9QBE6 [2] - http://youtube-global.blogspot.com/2009/09/five-stars-dominate-ratings.html [3] - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/0470011815.b2a15171/abstract

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A classic example was time-to-failure rates for components such as light bulbs. They typically fail immediately or after a few thousand hours, but rarely in between.

Scott Welch

The classical harmonic oscillator is a great example - the probability of being between x + dx is inversely proportional to its velocity there, therefore it's most likely to be near the extrema of the potential. here's a paper that calculates the PDF: http://robinett.phys.psu.edu/qm/INSTRUCTORS/AUTHOR_PAPERS/classical_and_quantum_ajp.pdf the PDF is simply: 1π√x20−x2 1Ï€x02−x2  \frac{1}{\pi\sqrt{ x_{0}^2 - x^2}} \ where x0 is the amplitude of oscillation. here's a plot for an amplitude of 10:

Tejas Navaratna

The http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A9vy_arcsine_law states that the proportion of time that a Brownian motion is positive follows a U-shaped distribution.

Justin Rising

Professor David Autor at the MIT Economics Dept. has published studies identifying a recent trend towards low- and high-skilled occupations occurring with movement away from medium-skilled occupations. This results in what he calls a "U-shaped curve" -- c.f. this PDF document from the New America Foundation: http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/Losing%20Middle%20America%20-%20Polarization%20-%20Damme%20-%2014%20Sept%2011.pdf On a side note, I didn't realize U-shaped curves were all that rare. Then again, the Central Limit Theorem would have us guess otherwise.

Chris Perez

A "real-world" example would be Loss Given Default - an important parameter to measure Credit Risk in financial institutions. http://www.ecb.europa.eu/events/conferences/shared/pdf/net_mar/Session4_Paper1_Memmel_Sachs_Stein.pdf?3b618e15753bcfde10e70679ce53ac37

Anindya Mozumdar

The http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bathtub_curve which models electronic device failure (like hard drives) is a classic U-shaped distribution, marking the prevalence 0f early life failures and end-of-lifespan failures.  The disk drive industry uses this model heavily. I've never heard of a "U-squared" distribution.  It really makes no sense at all since U is not a variable in this case, but a shape. The only $FOO-squared distributions in common use are Chi-squared and T-squared, and neither bunches at the limits.  Maybe they are trying to coin a new phrase?

Phillip Remaker

Sometimes a U-shaped distribution makes sense for prior beliefs. E.T. Jaynes gives the example of using a Haldine prior to model your (initial) belief about the probability that a solution dissolves in water. If you think the solution very likely to dissolve every time or not at all, then your prior should put most of it's weight at 0 or 1, with little in the middle. BTW the Beta distribution with parameters less than 1 can be a good way to model these distributions.

Matt Asher

These distributions are common in dosage relationships for drugs and food.  For example, some but not all studies of red meat consumption v mortality show that a little is better than none but eating a lot is worse.  Alcohol consumption shows similar u-shaped curves in some populations.  Similar relationships obviously hold for drug dosage: the optimum dose is, well, optimum; none or an overdose is worse. Caution: This is not a recommendation to pile up the meat and line up the drinks. The studies that indicate a benefit from red meat and alcohol only find it for the bottom quintile of consumption quantity/frequency.  Other studies have found no benefit reduction in all cause mortality.  High - or even moderate - consumption is definitely riskier.

Jim Birch

A common U-Shaped distribution used by life actuaries is the "curve of deaths" i.e. probability of death as a a function of age. Up until the first half of the 20th century, the highest probability of death occurred during the first few months of life; the second highest probability of death occurred during old age. However in the second half of the 20th century, these have swapped and dying of old age is now more common. Still, the probability of dying at either age 1 month or 70 years old is much larger than the probability of dying at 40 years old. http://www.longevitas.co.uk/site/informationmatrix/?tag=curve+of+deaths

Nick Kravitz

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