2008 Financial Crisis: What would have happened in the 30% chance that the economic recovery of 2009-2012 would not have worked?
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Vice President Joe Biden said (accidentally) that "if we do everything right, if we do it with absolute certainty, there's still a 30% chance we're going to get it wrong" in February 2009 in the depths of the financial crisis as the recovery package was being constructed. Assuming that Biden got this number from a meeting with the economic team and that it was correct (if not productive to mention publicly), what would have that outcome looked like? How bad would things have gotten?
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Answer:
The typical answer to the question "How bad could it be?" is to compare the present crisis with the Great Depression. The initial shock to the economy was comparable to that in 1929. Though in general the unemployment is still high, the economy recovered more quickly:
Anton Tarasenko at Quora Visit the source
Other answers
Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner gave an excellent presentation here in Chicago yesterday, and one of the points they alluded to was that because the financial crisis was so vast and complex, there was no simple, complete solution to the problem. One of the analogies that Geithner made was that the option to 'put out the fire' did not exist (it simply wasn't an option due to the complexity of the situation), but they had to 'control the burn.' That being said, if the entire financial system collapsed, the consequences would have been been tremendous on a global scale. Domestically, they mentioned multiple times how unemployment would sky rocket, and basically destroy the entire economy (without jobs, people would not be able to contribute to the economy).
Timothy Byrne
Tell me one thing, can you give me the number of dollars printed between 2008 and 2013? If you can, look at it, and tell me if it is a success. People continue to have no money, the 2 tier countries economies aren't growing like expected, overprice is everywhere, just look at technology, brazil is the the middle of a housing and credit bubble, bubbles are bigger than ever, everything is being kept at the tone of water by some thin and weak strings. Not beeing pessimistic, but if, in this moment if something fails in the 1st world everything collapses, of course some will stay alive, but not well. This is only what I think that is happening, from what I see and for what I know, in the end just one more opinion in the sea.
Carlos Lemos
A massive correction. The answer to EM08 (econ meltdown 2008) was a very standard one. Why it wasn't used will be uncovered - hopefully, by the historians of the future. Until then, no less than Bill Ackman explains: http://watertreading.blogspot.com/2014/09/vague-yet-good-but-theres-ackman.html
Jp Kaneshida
I mean unless I'm missing something the more I read about the "financial crisis" of 2008 the more I realize we bailed out banks to preserve a system that serves mainly the upper echelon of society. The bailout was to ensure that "the system" can continue to hum along nicely for them. After all, we can't have people on Park Ave. going from a 15-bedroom apartment down to a 3-bedroom apartment. Income inequality is the worst right now then it has ever been in history. US labor share is on the decline and has been since the 80's. So I don't even know what we're "bailing out" anymore. I believe Main St. would have gotten along just fine. We're humans; we're scrappy motherfuckers. We don't need a global economy, we need a local one. The irony is that because everything is going green; culturally it seems we're going local anyway. I believe that in crisis you'd find local communities working together to help each other out. Businesses turn hyperlocal when crisis hits. That's precisely what would've happened. You would've gotten your eggs and tomatoes from the guy up the street, because all the major retailers would have folded due to being over-leveraged and internationalized; they no longer could afford the importing/exporting of goods. And they couldn't afford to pay people a livable wage. And no one would be shopping there anyway due to incredibly high food prices. You probably would've paid more for gas that just means you'd gone out less and spend more time with your family and friends. You probably would've bought a lot less stuff; no new tv's, no new gaming systems, no new backyard grills, etc. Life would've been much simpler than it is today if collapse would've been allowed. Less jobs, high unemployment, more crime. Although one could argue communities are able to police themselves and do in fact police themselves. Education may have been a problem. The issue is mainly of unemployment and education. We would have more people without jobs and higher education. I don't really know what that means though; it's as if we don't know how to take care of ourselves unless we have a wage packet to purchase our survival supplies. It's astounding to think that in the first Depression of the United States, people died of starvation. Native Americans were living here for thousands of years without any "jobs". I find it impossible to believe that humans today couldn't figure out how to live off the land again. It's hard to answer because I believe our lifestyles would be radically different. I think we should watch Detroit over the next decade or so to see would've been if the bailout didn't; cause it didn't work for them. Watch how the people of Detroit adapt to their situation to get your answer.
Patrick Aubin
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