What do we call the "middle" variables in a complex research model?

Prelude to The Singularity?

• This is not a question, but an invitation to start a discussion on the topic. If there's a better place for this let me know. I've posted elsewhere what I think The Singularity will begin as.  Briefly, I think it will start with several probably independent,  possibly competing, groups, working on 1st-generation artificial  intelligence, human intelligence via genetic engineering, or a hybrid.  I  think we will see the first serious attempts at this not sooner than 15  or 20 years from now. What  about between now and the 1st-Generation Singularity Species (1-GSS)?  I'll call this the Pre-Singularity Period or PSP. While this period will  have only moderate consequences on the 1-GSS, I believe it will have  profound consequences for human society. Here's  a list of technologies that exist now but are not in production at this  writing. By "production" I mean they are not available for purchase or  use by the upper-middle class. Self-driving autos. Practical  domestic and work robots ("IQ" at least 90, dexterity equal or better  than human, both criteria for semi-specialized tasks). Genetic engineering applied to humans. Home factory appliances (much more capable 3D printers, etc). Post-silicon "tronics" (e.g. quantum computing, graphene or similar exotic material, memristors, organic computing). Within  the next 10 to 20 years--the Pre-Singularity Period--all of these will  be in production and available for purchase and use by businesses and  families with better-than-median incomes.  What does that mean for  society? 1.  and 2. are different applications of useful artificial intelligence.  Driving a car safely and expertly on unmodified roads is a specialized  application but certainly involves some kind of "intelligence". Domestic  and work robots, again, certainly involve "intelligence" but will not  be self-aware.  Robots and devices with this sort of skill and  dexterity, though, could eliminate up to half of the jobs currently in  America and other post-industrial countries. 3.  will see the beginning of genetically engineered health improvements to  humans. As a side effect, the legal and moral system of Western  societies will first allow genetic engineering to eliminate genetic  diseases, then improvements, making it easier for later scientists to  develop a human 1-GSS. It won't greatly affect the next 20 years or so,  but will show the way to permanently disease-free humans. 4.   will eliminate most or all low-value manufacturing and retail that  exists now.  Think of the typical trinkets and "stuff" that one buys now  from Walmart or Amazon. In the future you will manufacture the gizmo in  your Home Factory appliance, paying only a gizmo license fee and raw  materials. Millions of manufacturing and retail jobs will disappear. 5.'s  technologies are what will enable the specialized, artificially  intelligent autos, robots, and devices in the future. As another side  note, research into this area will form the foundation for self-aware,  independent artificial intelligence that can serve later scientists  attempting to make the 1-GSS with machines. To  summarize, the technological advances in 5. will enable useful and  practical artificial, machine intelligence, which in turn enable  practical and affordable robots, self-driving cars, and a host of  devices that now require human operation. This in turn will eliminate  many hundreds of millions of skilled jobs world-wide, and the effect on  societies will of course be profound. If we stick to the traditional  work ethic and capitalist model, displaced workers will, at best, be  thrown onto unemployment and welfare. Or, society may recognize that  many hundreds of millions of people are simply no longer needed in the  modern economy and create make-work "jobs" for their remaining lives.   Either way, it should be interesting to watch ;)

• Answer:

  I don't believe that it will really pick up steam until we move from brittle "manually-designed" software systems to more robost, adaptive, "black-box", evolutionary algorithmically-developed software. Humans are simply too slow to code the software that we need. We need to become more comfortable with software having errors and "forgetting" things, etc, as a trade-off for much more adaptive, evolving software. All the other techs are distractions. Software is everything. Software will design the robotics, etc, so everything else is secondary.