2012 NFL Draft: Is Robert Griffin III worth 3 first round picks in trade?
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Today, (3/9/12) the Washington Redskins traded 3 first round picks (2012 swapping this years picks and their future first rounders in 2013, 2014). The Redskins also gave up their 2012 second round pick.
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Answer:
It is impossible to say today.. Because we have no idea how high the future picks will be (what if they turn out to be the first picks in those drafts? What if the picks turn out to be the 32nd pick in the first round of those drafts? Huge difference.).. And we have no idea whether RG3 will be a great pro. For example, what if he blows out a knee or an arm as a rookie? But. Washington plays in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Mike Vick. Rex Grossman (although he did go 2-0 against the Super Bowl Champion Giants last year, noted) is not enough quarterback to win this division. They had to do something. Peyton Manning did not want to come. Matt Flynn, who has started TWO GAMES as a pro, is going to get a deal with $50 or so million guaranteed .. A huge risk. Ryan Tannehill might not get to them at number six had they stayed put in the draft.. There is little to prevent other teams from jumping ahead of Washington is the draft, especially everyone chasing Manning right now that does not ultimately get him. So absent action, they risked starting Grossman again. I love the fact DC moved up to get their guy. The new rookie cap is a huge factor in this deal. Griffin will get about $23 million over four year, with about $15 million guaranteed. That is less than half of what I expect a free agent like Flynn to receive, and about a quarter of what Peyton Manning is going to cost. Money is no object to the Redskins.. But that saved money can now be used to build a great team around RG3. But even more than that.. If you think RG3 is the real deal, a future Pro Bowler and HOF guy, you go get him. It is risky, agreed. But to me, when you have the Rex Grossman and John Beck duo as your triggermen, you have to make this move. Since 1996, when Jim Kelly retired, my Buffalo Bills have been searching for a long term quarterback. Maybe Ryan Fitzpatick is that guy, we shall see. But it is zero coincidence that the Bills have not made the playoffs since 1999. You have to have a great quarterback to have a real chance to win in he NFL. Now, DC has hope. If they are wrong, it is a brutal price to pay. But if they are right, the price tag will seem like a bargain in five years. No one ever asks what Denver gave up (three firsts) to get Elway, what the Giants gave up to get Eli Manning, etc.
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Other answers
Yes. Will he turn into that franchise QB the Redskins are desperately hoping for? No one knows and there are so many intangibles in play both for Griffin and for the Redskins in terms of long-term success. Ultimately, this is a passing league and unless you happen to root for New Orleans, your franchise QB did not come through free agency. How many draft picks, and therefore seasons, would you like to spend before a "generational talent" drops to you? This is a very unique draft in that both Luck and Griffin project as phenomenal prospects for the pro game: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2012/lewin-career-forecast-2012 It's a risky move if Griffin is a bust, but frankly every draft pick is subject to such risk. Just look at Robert Gallery, Charles Rogers, Johnathan Sullivan, etc. for top picks in other positions that did not pan out as great players. Who's to say whether the picks surrendered by Washington would amount to talent that compensated the team's perenniel need for a competant (let alone elite) quarterback. I like the move. It's one of the few of Snider-regime's riskier plays that I think makes for a reasonable calculated risk.
Kavinay Kishor
That depends on three things: How good is RG3? How good is Sam Bradford? What will the Rams do with those picks? RG3 might be very good but odds are he won't be. That's just the nature of picking QB in the first round. Sam Bradford is the reason many people took the Rams as a sleeper pick last year to win the West. How's Bradford going to be this year? What's his ceiling? Is RG3 better than he is? Even coming out of school? Probably the most interesting of these questions is the last one. The Rams haven't exactly been hitting the jackpot in the draft over the last few years. Although strategies by New England (quantity of picks over quality) and the craptastic drafts of the once-heralded Colts front office leads me to believe that there's as much luck as science in picking well. Nevertheless, I'm not sure I'm comforted if I'm a Rams fan knowing that they have 3 great picks to waste.
Jonathan Brill
It's not really three first-round picks - they are swapping first-rounders this year, so it is two firsts and a second for RGIII. That's still a TON to give up for an untested player. He's got a lot of talent, but if he doesn't make the transition to the NFL, this is going to haunt the Redskins for years. Still, as everyone says, you can't pay too much for a franchise quarterback, and with Shanahan teaching him, this could turn out to be a brilliant move.
Dave Hogg
It's difficult to say. Robert Griffin III is a rare talent. He has a solid arm, great speed and he's a good character guy. He's the mobile quarterback Mike Shanahan likes to work with, similar to his days with John Elway and Jake Plummer, but more athletic. On top of that, he is a young QB option that can be the face of the franchise for years to come, something they have not had in a long time. RGIII is talented, but coming from a smaller program in Baylor, and getting so much hype in just one year of outstanding play, I'm not sure it was wise to give up so much. Then again, it could be worth it, and he is definitely better than what they have now. He's a high risk, high reward prospect, and coming to the NFC East, he'll face strong competition immediately. We shall see.
Felix Davila III
One really great year is what the Redskins got from Griffin and now he is expected to hit the open market with nothing in return...a rather expensive lesson for that run. It appears that Griffin is flawed in both body and focus. Football players with repetitive injury seldom excel and team chemistry seems paramount for winning football games. The team and much of the fan-base appear to believe the right choices are being made now and that Griffin was an expensive learning experience. However, many would like to see him far from Washington as some doubt remains from that great rooky year. We were out of the depths for one shining moment! The picks didn't seem to help the Rams and the Redskins somehow ended up with a surprising good quarterback in a later round. For my beloved Redskins, we appear to have survived the debacle and are in the right place. The Rams can only hope a new city is the right place. We are a better team now. Time will tell. Hail to the Redskins!
Chas Emmert
Generally I will say no he won't be worth it but there are two unknowns:1) How great of a career does RGIII have 2) What were the other offers for the Rams pick ie were other teams offering close to 3 first round picks for RGIII or did the Redskins bid against themselves
Hunter McCord
He better be worth it. The redskins are famous for giving up a lot of picks to sign big name athletes. Nothing will be determined until after the season. If he does well and shows promise. Everyone will say it was a great idea. If he does not pan out than it will categorized as a bad pick
Anthony Ferla
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