How likely is it that Catalonia will gain its independence and what effects would independence have?
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How likely is the independence of Catalonia to occur? How will or won't it happen? What will be the effects to various communities such as Spain, the EU, etc? If it is achieved, how is the new government likely to form and develop?
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Answer:
Day by day the independence of Catalonia is nearer. The main reason is that day after day the number of catalans wanting the independence is growing. It's not clear that Catalonia will eventually become independent, but the catalan's fight will last for a long time and will sure get more serious in the near future. Meanwhile, the Spanish government, instead of trying to solve the catalan 'problem' (for example by listening to its people and treating the region as if they actually cared about Catalonia) seems to be determined to give catalan people more reasons to leave. Obviusly, spanish economic situation does not really help here. Catalans themselves are aware that the desired independence may not be the magic pill to solve all of their problems, but a lot of people feel that, at least, they would be able to manage them (the problems) for themselves. And we cannot forget the historical catalan feeling about Spain being an 'opressor' state, which is a subjective but relatively extended feeling. How will it affect to Spain? Negatively, probably. Well, that's the reason why they won't let Catalonia go. However, Spain will survive without Catalonia, as well as Catalonia will survive without Spain. To answer all those questions about how would a Catalan independent state work, there's an extremelly interesting website that collects a bunch of questions, from "Which electoral law will define elections in an independent Catalonia?" to "In which league will FC Barcelona and Espanyol play in an independent Catalonia?". You'll find the answers here: http://www.elclauer.cat/canvi_idioma/en.html P.S.: I'm a catalan myself, I just didn't write this in the first person in order to make it as objective as possible. However, this is how I see things around me, so different personal opinions may (and probably will) differ from what I wrote here. Just hope it answers part of your question.
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