Is technology eliminating or redistributing jobs?
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As technology continues to be cheaper and more accessible is it eliminating jobs? From the middle man, like realtors and travel agents, to blue collar factory jobs, it seems like technology is replacing the need for human workers. Or, are jobs being redistributed to more creative white collar technology fueled employment? If so, are they being redistributed equally, or at a slower pace that is increasing unemployment?
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Answer:
It is requiring a more sophisticated skill-set. There will always be a need for human workers to some extent, but the workers will need to know how to use the emerging technology alongside what they offer.
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Other answers
Technology does in fact eliminate jobs, but it also improves the efficiency of current jobs, reduce hard dangerous or boring jobs, and the kicker --> create new jobs we never knew we needed.The fear of technology replacing jobs is actually quite common - it happened in every era of mankind, and although people fear loosing their job, technology creates jobs that we did not even think of.In fact, Deloitte studied raw data from 1871 to current - with the primary objective to ask if technology has destroyed more jobs than it has created - and in fact, the study revealed the opposite.More effective farms - but arguably a loss of jobs: Yay no more hand washing - another loss of jobs: But here is the silver lining - Caring jobs go up as labor jobs go down The best way to handle this change when you don't know what jobs will be created?Understand, Build, and Grow your passions. By doing so when new jobs we don't know of get created - and when one of them speaks to you as a person - you will be best qualified to transition.Good luck!Here is a great article summarizing the study, a the source for the graphs:http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/17/technology-created-more-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census
Shane Chagpar
Your options aren't mutually exclusive an I would say both are happening. In some ways jobs are being eliminated (factory workers, longshoremen, etc). At the same time technology has created new types of jobs an made starting new businesses a lot more accessible. It has definitely changed the needed skills in the workforce.
Jordan Conley
Technology on the whole is unequivocally eliminating jobs. It is the wishful tale of denial to posit otherwise. A convenient lie but a comforting falsehood nonetheless. Similar to statements that history always repeats, that things never change, that the earth is flat and man will never fly. Simply because humans now always compete with machines in the labor market. The notion that humans just compete with other humans is naïve and false. The machines are winning the race, their long term victory is a forgone conclusion.Human labor increases in cost over time, intelligent automated machine labor decreases in cost over time. Every business owner knows this obvious fact. The machine eventually replaces every human in the workforce. The telltale signs of rising wealth inequality and the permanent jobless recovery are unmistakable signs simply because robust economic growth exists with declining employment because more and more economic output is generated by machine labor as opposed to human labor. Worse yet even 1st world intelligent automated factories are becoming cheaper than low cost third world labor after transportation costs and shipping times are accounted for. Here is a decent article from the Economist regarding the consequences of automation by intelligent machines.http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less IN 1930, when the world was âsufferingâ¦from a bad attack of economic pessimismâ, John Maynard Keynes wrote a broadly optimistic essay, âEconomic Possibilities for our Grandchildrenâ. It imagined a middle way between revolution and stagnation that would leave the said grandchildren a great deal richer than their grandparents. But the path was not without dangers.One of the worries Keynes admitted was a ânew diseaseâ: âtechnological unemploymentâ¦due to our discovery of means of economising the use of labour outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labour.â His readers might not have heard of the problem, he suggestedâbut they were certain to hear a lot more about it in the years to come.For the most part, they did not. Nowadays, the majority of economists confidently wave such worries away. By raising productivity, they argue, any automation which economises on the use of labour will increase incomes. That will generate demand for new products and services, which will in turn create new jobs for displaced workers. To think otherwise has meant being tarred a Ludditeâthe name taken by 19th-century textile workers who smashed the machines taking their jobs.For much of the 20th century, those arguing that technology brought ever more jobs and prosperity looked to have the better of the debate. Real incomes in Britain scarcely doubled between the beginning of the common era and 1570. They then tripled from 1570 to 1875. And they more than tripled from 1875 to 1975. Industrialisation did not end up eliminating the need for human workers. On the contrary, it created employment opportunities sufficient to soak up the 20th centuryâs exploding population. Keynesâs vision of everyone in the 2030s being a lot richer is largely achieved. His belief they would work just 15 hours or so a week has not come to pass.When the sleeper wakesYet some now fear that a new era of automation enabled by ever more powerful and capable computers could work out differently. They start from the observation that, across the rich world, all is far from well in the world of work. The essence of what they see as a work crisis is that in rich countries the wages of the typical worker, adjusted for cost of living, are stagnant. In America the real wage has hardly budged over the past four decades. Even in places like Britain and Germany, where employment is touching new highs, wages have been flat for a decade. Recent research suggests that this is because substituting capital for labour through automation is increasingly attractive; as a result owners of capital have captured ever more of the worldâs income since the 1980s, while the share going to labour has fallen.At the same time, even in relatively egalitarian places like Sweden, inequality among the employed has risen sharply, with the share going to the highest earners soaring. For those not in the elite, argues David Graeber, an anthropologist at the London School of Economics, much of modern labour consists of stultifying âbullshit jobsââlow- and mid-level screen-sitting that serves simply to occupy workers for whom the economy no longer has much use. Keeping them employed, Mr Graeber argues, is not an economic choice; it is something the ruling class does to keep control over the lives of others.Be that as it may, drudgery may soon enough give way to frank unemployment. There is already a long-term trend towards lower levels of employment in some rich countries. The proportion of American adults participating in the labour force recently hit its lowest level since 1978, and although some of that is due to the effects of ageing, some is not. In a recent speech that was modelled in part on Keynesâs âPossibilitiesâ, Larry Summers, a former American treasury secretary, looked at employment trends among American men between 25 and 54. In the 1960s only one in 20 of those men was not working. According to Mr Summersâs extrapolations, in ten years the number could be one in seven.This is one indication, Mr Summers says, that technical change is increasingly taking the form of âcapital that effectively substitutes for labourâ. There may be a lot more for such capital to do in the near future. A 2013 paper by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, of the University of Oxford, argued that jobs are at high risk of being automated in 47% of the occupational categories into which work is customarily sorted. That includes accountancy, legal work, technical writing and a lot of other white-collar occupations.Answering the question of whether such automation could lead to prolonged pain for workers means taking a close look at past experience, theory and technological trends. The picture suggested by this evidence is a complex one. It is also more worrying than many economists and politicians have been prepared to admit.The lathe of heavenEconomists take the relationship between innovation and higher living standards for granted in part because they believe history justifies such a view. Industrialisation clearly led to enormous rises in incomes and living standards over the long run. Yet the road to riches was rockier than is often appreciated.In 1500 an estimated 75% of the British labour force toiled in agriculture. By 1800 that figure had fallen to 35%. When the shift to manufacturing got under way during the 18th century it was overwhelmingly done at small scale, either within the home or in a small workshop; employment in a large factory was a rarity. By the end of the 19th century huge plants in massive industrial cities were the norm. The great shift was made possible by automation and steam engines.Industrial firms combined human labour with big, expensive capital equipment. To maximise the output of that costly machinery, factory owners reorganised the processes of production. Workers were given one or a few repetitive tasks, often making components of finished products rather than whole pieces. Bosses imposed a tight schedule and strict worker discipline to keep up the productive pace. The Industrial Revolution was not simply a matter of replacing muscle with steam; it was a matter of reshaping jobs themselves into the sort of precisely defined components that steam-driven machinery neededâcogs in a factory system.The way old jobs were done changed; new jobs were created. Joel Mokyr, an economic historian at Northwestern University in Illinois, argues that the more intricate machines, techniques and supply chains of the period all required careful tending. The workers who provided that care were well rewarded. As research by Lawrence Katz, of Harvard University, and Robert Margo, of Boston University, shows, employment in manufacturing âhollowed outâ. As employment grew for highly skilled workers and unskilled workers, craft workers lost out. This was the loss to which the Luddites, understandably if not effectively, took exception. With the low-skilled workers far more numerous, at least to begin with, the lot of the average worker during the early part of this great industrial and social upheaval was not a happy one. As Mr Mokyr notes, âlife did not improve all that much between 1750 and 1850.â For 60 years, from 1770 to 1830, growth in British wages, adjusted for inflation, was imperceptible because productivity growth was restricted to a few industries. Not until the late 19th century, when the gains had spread across the whole economy, did wages at last perform in line with productivity (see chart 1).Along with social reforms and new political movements that gave voice to the workers, this faster wage growth helped spread the benefits of industrialisation across wider segments of the population. New investments in education provided a supply of workers for the more skilled jobs that were by then being created in ever greater numbers. This shift continued into the 20th century as post-secondary education became increasingly common.Claudia Goldin, an economist at Harvard University, and Mr Katz have written that workers were in a ârace between education and technologyâ during this period, and for the most part they won. Even so, it was not until the âgolden ageâ after the second world war that workers in the rich world secured real prosperity, and a large, property-owning middle class came to dominate politics. At the same time communism, a legacy of industrialisationâs harsh early era, kept hundreds of millions of people around the world in poverty, and the effects of the imperialism driven by European industrialisation continued to be felt by billions.The impacts of technological change take their time appearing. They also vary hugely from industry to industry. Although in many simple economic models technology pairs neatly with capital and labour to produce output, in practice technological changes do not affect all workers the same way. Some find that their skills are complementary to new technologies. Others find themselves out of work.Take computers. In the early 20th century a âcomputerâ was a worker, or a room of workers, doing mathematical calculations by hand, often with the end point of one personâs work the starting point for the next. The development of mechanical and electronic computing rendered these arrangements obsolete. But in time it greatly increased the productivity of those who used the new computers in their work.Many other technical innovations had similar effects. New machinery displaced handicraft producers across numerous industries, from textiles to metalworking. At the same time it enabled vastly more output per person than craft producers could ever manage.Player pianoFor a task to be replaced by a machine, it helps a great deal if, like the work of human computers, it is already highly routine. Hence the demise of production-line jobs and some sorts of book-keeping, lost to the robot and the spreadsheet. Meanwhile work less easily broken down into a series of stereotyped tasksâwhether rewarding, as the management of other workers and the teaching of toddlers can be, or more of a grind, like tidying and cleaning messy work placesâhas grown as a share of total employment.But the âraceâ aspect of technological change means that such workers cannot rest on their pay packets. Firms are constantly experimenting with new technologies and production processes. Experimentation with different techniques and business models requires flexibility, which is one critical advantage of a human worker. Yet over time, as best practices are worked out and then codified, it becomes easier to break production down into routine components, then automate those components as technology allows.If, that is, automation makes sense. As David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), points out in a 2013 paper, the mere fact that a job can be automated does not mean that it will be; relative costs also matter. When Nissan produces cars in Japan, he notes, it relies heavily on robots. At plants in India, by contrast, the firm relies more heavily on cheap local labour.Even when machine capabilities are rapidly improving, it can make sense instead to seek out ever cheaper supplies of increasingly skilled labour. Thus since the 1980s (a time when, in America, the trend towards post-secondary education levelled off) workers there and elsewhere have found themselves facing increased competition from both machines and cheap emerging-market workers. Such processes have steadily and relentlessly squeezed labour out of the manufacturing sector in most rich economies. The share of American employment in manufacturing has declined sharply since the 1950s, from almost 30% to less than 10%. At the same time, jobs in services soared, from less than 50% of employment to almost 70% (see chart 2). It was inevitable, therefore, that firms would start to apply the same experimentation and reorganisation to service industries.A new wave of technological progress may dramatically accelerate this automation of brain-work. Evidence is mounting that rapid technological progress, which accounted for the long era of rapid productivity growth from the 19th century to the 1970s, is back. The sort of advances that allow people to put in their pocket a computer that is not only more powerful than any in the world 20 years ago, but also has far better software and far greater access to useful data, as well as to other people and machines, have implications for all sorts of work.The case for a highly disruptive period of economic growth is made by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, professors at MIT, in âThe Second Machine Ageâ, a book to be published later this month. Like the first great era of industrialisation, they argue, it should deliver enormous benefitsâbut not without a period of disorienting and uncomfortable change. Their argument rests on an underappreciated aspect of the exponential growth in chip processing speed, memory capacity and other computer metrics: that the amount of progress computers will make in the next few years is always equal to the progress they have made since the very beginning. Mr Brynjolfsson and Mr McAfee reckon that the main bottleneck on innovation is the time it takes society to sort through the many combinations and permutations of new technologies and business models.A startling progression of inventions seems to bear their thesis out. Ten years ago technologically minded economists pointed to driving cars in traffic as the sort of human accomplishment that computers were highly unlikely to master. Now Google cars are rolling round California driver-free no one doubts such mastery is possible, though the speed at which fully self-driving cars will come to market remains hard to guess.Brave new worldEven after computers beat grandmasters at chess (once thought highly unlikely), nobody thought they could take on people at free-form games played in natural language. Then Watson, a pattern-recognising supercomputer developed by IBM, bested the best human competitors in Americaâs popular and syntactically tricksy general-knowledge quiz show âJeopardy!â Versions of Watson are being marketed to firms across a range of industries to help with all sorts of pattern-recognition problems. Its acumen will grow, and its costs fall, as firms learn to harness its abilities.The machines are not just cleverer, they also have access to far more data. The combination of big data and smart machines will take over some occupations wholesale; in others it will allow firms to do more with fewer workers. Text-mining programs will displace professional jobs in legal services. Biopsies will be analysed more efficiently by image-processing software than lab technicians. Accountants may follow travel agents and tellers into the unemployment line as tax software improves. Machines are already turning basic sports results and financial data into good-enough news stories.Jobs that are not easily automated may still be transformed. New data-processing technology could break âcognitiveâ jobs down into smaller and smaller tasks. As well as opening the way to eventual automation this could reduce the satisfaction from such work, just as the satisfaction of making things was reduced by deskilling and interchangeable parts in the 19th century. If such jobs persist, they may engage Mr Graeberâs âbullshitâ detector.Being newly able to do brain work will not stop computers from doing ever more formerly manual labour; it will make them better at it. The designers of the latest generation of industrial robots talk about their creations as helping workers rather than replacing them; but there is little doubt that the technology will be able to do a bit of bothâprobably more than a bit. A taxi driver will be a rarity in many places by the 2030s or 2040s. That sounds like bad news for journalists who rely on that most reliable source of local knowledge and prejudiceâbut will there be many journalists left to care? Will there be airline pilots? Or traffic cops? Or soldiers? There will still be jobs. Even Mr Frey and Mr Osborne, whose research speaks of 47% of job categories being open to automation within two decades, accept that some jobsâespecially those currently associated with high levels of education and high wagesâwill survive (see table). Tyler Cowen, an economist at George Mason University and a much-read blogger, writes in his most recent book, âAverage is Overâ, that rich economies seem to be bifurcating into a small group of workers with skills highly complementary with machine intelligence, for whom he has high hopes, and the rest, for whom not so much.And although Mr Brynjolfsson and Mr McAfee rightly point out that developing the business models which make the best use of new technologies will involve trial and error and human flexibility, it is also the case that the second machine age will make such trial and error easier. It will be shockingly easy to launch a startup, bring a new product to market and sell to billions of global consumers (see article). Those who create or invest in blockbuster ideas may earn unprecedented returns as a result.In a forthcoming book Thomas Piketty, an economist at the Paris School of Economics, argues along similar lines that America may be pioneering a hyper-unequal economic model in which a top 1% of capital-owners and âsupermanagersâ grab a growing share of national income and accumulate an increasing concentration of national wealth. The rise of the middle-classâa 20th-century innovationâwas a hugely important political and social development across the world. The squeezing out of that class could generate a more antagonistic, unstable and potentially dangerous politics.The potential for dramatic change is clear. A future of widespread technological unemployment is harder for many to accept. Every great period of innovation has produced its share of labour-market doomsayers, but technological progress has never previously failed to generate new employment opportunities. The productivity gains from future automation will be real, even if they mostly accrue to the owners of the machines. Some will be spent on goods and servicesâgolf instructors, household help and so onâand most of the rest invested in firms that are seeking to expand and presumably hire more labour. Though inequality could soar in such a world, unemployment would not necessarily spike. The current doldrum in wages may, like that of the early industrial era, be a temporary matter, with the good times about to roll (see chart 3).These jobs may look distinctly different from those they replace. Just as past mechanisation freed, or forced, workers into jobs requiring more cognitive dexterity, leaps in machine intelligence could create space for people to specialise in more emotive occupations, as yet unsuited to machines: a world of artists and therapists, love counsellors and yoga instructors.Such emotional and relational work could be as critical to the future as metal-bashing was in the past, even if it gets little respect at first. Cultural norms change slowly. Manufacturing jobs are still often treated as âbetterââin some vague, non-pecuniary wayâthan paper-pushing is. To some 18th-century observers, working in the fields was inherently more noble than making gewgaws.But though growth in areas of the economy that are not easily automated provides jobs, it does not necessarily help real wages. Mr Summers points out that prices of things-made-of-widgets have fallen remarkably in past decades; Americaâs Bureau of Labour Statistics reckons that today you could get the equivalent of an early 1980s television for a twentieth of its then price, were it not that no televisions that poor are still made. However, prices of things not made of widgets, most notably college education and health care, have shot up. If people lived on widgets aloneâ goods whose costs have fallen because of both globalisation and technologyâthere would have been no pause in the increase of real wages. It is the increase in the prices of stuff that isnât mechanised (whose supply is often under the control of the state and perhaps subject to fundamental scarcity) that means a pay packet goes no further than it used to.So technological progress squeezes some incomes in the short term before making everyone richer in the long term, and can drive up the costs of some things even more than it eventually increases earnings. As innovation continues, automation may bring down costs in some of those stubborn areas as well, though those dominated by scarcityâsuch as houses in desirable placesâare likely to resist the trend, as may those where the state keeps market forces at bay. But if innovation does make health care or higher education cheaper, it will probably be at the cost of more jobs, and give rise to yet more concentration of income. The machine stopsEven if the long-term outlook is rosy, with the potential for greater wealth and lots of new jobs, it does not mean that policymakers should simply sit on their hands in the mean time. Adaptation to past waves of progress rested on political and policy responses. The most obvious are the massive improvements in educational attainment brought on first by the institution of universal secondary education and then by the rise of university attendance. Policies aimed at similar gains would now seem to be in order. But as Mr Cowen has pointed out, the gains of the 19th and 20th centuries will be hard to duplicate.Boosting the skills and earning power of the children of 19th-century farmers and labourers took little more than offering schools where they could learn to read, write and do algebra. Pushing a large proportion of college graduates to complete graduate work successfully will be harder and more expensive. Perhaps cheap and innovative online education will indeed make new attainment possible. But as Mr Cowen notes, such programmes may tend to deliver big gains only for the most conscientious students.Another way in which previous adaptation is not necessarily a good guide to future employment is the existence of welfare. The alternative to joining the 19th-century industrial proletariat was malnourished deprivation. Today, because of measures introduced in response to, and to some extent on the proceeds of, industrialisation, people in the developed world are provided with unemployment benefits, disability allowances and other forms of welfare. They are also much more likely than a bygone peasant to have savings. This means that the âreservation wageââthe wage below which a worker will not accept a jobâis now high in historical terms. If governments refuse to allow jobless workers to fall too far below the average standard of living, then this reservation wage will rise steadily, and ever more workers may find work unattractive. And the higher it rises, the greater the incentive to invest in capital that replaces labour.Everyone should be able to benefit from productivity gainsâin that, Keynes was united with his successors. His worry about technological unemployment was mainly a worry about a âtemporary phase of maladjustmentâ as society and the economy adjusted to ever greater levels of productivity. So it could well prove. However, society may find itself sorely tested if, as seems possible, growth and innovation deliver handsome gains to the skilled, while the rest cling to dwindling employment opportunities at stagnant wages.
Jeff Ronne
Thanks for the A2A. Some will say that it's eliminating certain jobs but creating enough other jobs so that the net effect is redistribution or even expansion. That may have been true historically, but today they're ignoring the elephant in the room.AI's/robots are now starting to learn the same way that people learn: via observation, trial, error, and correction. While this competency is still nascent, as it expands in scope and subtlety it will ripple through the world of work. When a machine can do a job (or part of a job) as well as a person does it, the only reason not to hire the machine is the capital required to "hire" it and maintain it. In such situations, corporations will have their financial analysts do a cost/benefit analysis, comparing machine-related costs (which diminish over time) to the costs of hiring and "maintaining" people. The cost curve of technology dictates that the people will not remain competitive in the long run.Others maintain that "creative" jobs will remain exclusively human. I've written elsewhere on Quora and in my book of why this holds true only by continually redefining the word "creative" in ever-narrower ways. (Also: how many of us truly do creative things for which we're paid?)We need to start preparing for a future in which many people, both manual laborers and knowledge workers, are unable to find work because they are no longer economically competitive. Wishful thinking is not sound public policy, and it is dangerous. With machine capabilities progressing exponentially, we may not have much time remaining in which to explore, test, refine and implement the truly new solutions required.
Jonathan Kolber
Technology is providing the basis for a new economy. As such, the old rules of the Industrial paradigm simply don't apply. Don't listen to the old paradigm leaders who say they need to create more jobs, the issue is that Industrialism doesn't create the kind of work that educated and concerned people want. Speaking metaphorically, the Earth has the option of transitioning from an economy based on expansion and conquest to one of interdependence and collaboration. There is only one of those with a future.
Mark Janssen
Technology always eliminate jobs done by old technology and create a new road's for new jobs for newer technology. Just imagine in 1800 century can people believe that in 2016 people will mostly work and talk on Mobil phone and take photos from it and have there own printing press at home. But today human has survived that technological changes and development and same way we humans will survive tomorrow's technologycal change too... I have answered similar question on Quora sometimes back which has similarities with current question, which is as below:- Change is only constant, everything else is always changing. What happened to candles manufacturing, when electric bulbs were introduced. What happened to horsecart, bullock cart when railways and car were introduced. What happened to telegrams when telephone came and then on to mobile phones. What happened to so many clerks, typist, accountants when desktop computer came. What happened to Letters and Fax when Email came and to email when social media came What happened to Shopping from neighbouring shop's to Mall's to telesopping to online to apps shopping. Barter system to cash to banks to credit cards to online payment to mobile payments to virtual currency is happening. Websites to apps transformation. So, in reality Humans are continually passing from one technology changes to other since last 200+ years but this pace of change is increasing very rapidly since last 25 years and the speed of new innovation and implemention of technology in humans daily life will increase multifold. Prominent change expected in future are Robotics in almost everything. Artificial Intelligence and full automaton in all daily chorus including driving, flying. Virtual learning to virtual business to virtual workplace. Connected devices to appliances to home to community to animals to humans in nutshell everything on earth will be connected. Customised medicine to cosmetics to everything - small and precise manufacturing. From here onwards human population will show negative growth and religions will have survival problems. Nation, boundary, culture, social, currency all the terms will start diluting. Now what change is coming in next few months to next few years is nothing new to mankind, they have seen it, they have moulded themselves, they have evolved, they will change too and they will live on.... Jobs of today will likely not survive tommrow unless you change with technology.
Alex Johns
The evidence I currently have suggests that we are accelerating the elimination of jobs via automation faster than we are redistributing jobs. There is a 2012 study done at Oxford that predicts up to 45% of jobs could be automated. If you look at the most prevalent jobs across states, you can see that in most states in 2014 "Trucker, delivery driver, or tractor driver" is #1. There are currently 4 states where "computer software developer" (Utah, Colorado, Virginia, Washington). In 1996 (9 years ago) there were zero states with "computer software developers". If you dive into the jobs being "redistributed" and add them together, they are of much smaller number than existing driving jobs or the factory jobs of 20 years ago. Within the last couple weeks I have seen at least half a dozen stories on the Daimler self driving truck in Nevada... within a decade most "Trucker, delivery driver, or tractor driver" will be looking for new work. Our ability to move most of those existing truckers to programming jobs/information economy seems unlikely. Note that I believe we could train these truckers to be useful in the information economy in ~6-9 months in IT bootcamps, but ushering them through college is probably untenable . Given the rapid churn in programming skills, the well documented agism, and the influx of H1B candidates. The H1B system exists primarily to suppress US programming wages by changing the supply of available programers and secondarily to introduce needed high quality workers. You can see this by looking at the numbers of H1B folks and the top 5 companies that are hiring them.. Infosys, Wipro, Tata, IBM and Deloitte, all of those are primarily consulting companies, the top 3 are India based.
Anonymous
Generating and Eliminating both. Generating at the speed of 10, eliminating at the speed of 1000. Generating in only few sectors like software, big data etc where there is need for automation. Eliminating all others like in few years self driven cars will eliminate drivers, online education will eliminate teachers, coaching institutes etc But no need to worry...just think of basic Why Human Have made machines.Ofcourse To reduce his effort---earlier Industrial Revolution 1.0 made free Horses from Horse cart. Now Industrial Revolution 4.0 will free humans from both labor and most mental work.Solution of mass Unemplyment lies in Simply by not doing job for money. But next Q arise that how we will sustain without money.Answer is - those who own these super effecient automated machines, Rich Capitalist have to provide free Money to people who lost their jobs because of them, otherwise revolt will happen. And we also know that if all people become poor, whom these super rich people will sell their product.if no body is having money, nobody will be able to buy anything...ultimately these rich will also become poor in one day.This will be new kind of Economic System=(Capitalism + communism) also called GANDHIAN ECONOMIC SYSTEM. where rich will act as trustee of the wealth they generated from society, not the owner.Capitalism as system will be still looking for best way of doing things, maximum profit, maximum efficiency.Communism as people will be provided free doles so that they do not revolt.(just think of the day when self driven cars will be on roads at massive scale....how govt will tackle unemployment of millions of car drivers, truck drivers etc. they have to be supported by someone either directly by rich people or through govt by taxing these rich.)Yes, There will be very few who will be working that too voluntarily, mostly in research, health sector and for managing those automated system.World Political System wil be ONE SINGLE GOVT. based on GANDHIAN TRUSTEESHIP MODELIt will be something like Satya Yuga (Sat Yuga) "the Era of Truth" according to Indian philosophy, when humanity is governed by moral values. There will be no poverty, hunger, theft etc.But this will happen after a lot of chaos and destruction of present economic system.SEE HOWCapitalism(Profitism, innovation, renewables, increased inequality, Automation, Robotics, loss of jobs at mass scale) ---->Social Upheaval---->Riots---->Even 3rd world war like situation---->Govt change---->one single World Govt--->Every Sector of economy controlled by Govt as Trustee ----> Robots will perform most of things for human..will provide food, clothes, housing, daily consumption things.This trusteeship Govt. will provide everything human wants. Humans will just enjoy their life because they are born as HUMANS. We humans(including our ancestors) have worked hard to reach at this stage.At now it looks like utopean idea, how can human enjoy everything without doing any JOB (compulsory, voluntary many people will work and persue their interest but not for monetary benefits, because we all want to contribute something to society. ......ask yourself , Don't you.)It looks like an idea of socialism but no its not, Socialism Failed because it did not provide any incentive structure for humans to work that result into inefficiency ---->less supply---->high demand---->artificial price rise---->inflation ---->poverty.Socialism collapsed because of its failure to operate under a competitive, profit-and-loss system of accounting. Under profit system firms that are the most efficient and most successful at serving the public interest are rewarded with profits. Firms that operate inefficiently and fail to serve the public interest are penalized with losses.A competitive profit system ensures a constant reoptimization of resources and moves the economy toward greater levels of efficiency.Under socialist system, there was no profit-and-loss system of accounting to accurately measure the success or failure of various programs. Without incentives the results were spiraling cycle of poverty and misery. Instead of continually reallocating resources towards greater efficiency, socialism fell into a vortex of inefficiency and failure.Still want to know more HOW Satyug is imminent ...Lets continueWhat are human needs , why we WORK beacuse all want money , we STUDY so that we can get job and with that money we can buy basic necessities of life(Food, cloth, housing, health) + some recreation enjoyment activities.what if computers/robots work for you and provide you all these things...then human can just enjoy his life. How is it possible? It is possible because mother earth gives us all things. Food, Housing..etc everything. It is possible because we human (including our all ancestors) have work hard and will work hard for some more years to create a self satisfying system which will provide us all necessary things.Sun is the ultimate source of energy. Mother Earth gives us everything.Till now we worked because there was no one to work for us and there was always more demand than supply( Due to population increase and less advanced technology to produce food and energy).Things are going to change in both above, Robots, Automation, Artificial Intelligence + new technology will produce more than human requirement+ Human just does have to control its population, which will happen about 2060.But before this happen there will be great chaos as capitalist system will give its way to new form of economic system.The real truth is that we've become so efficient at building and producing things that two thirds of the population could be living happy, fulfilled lives doing absolutely nothing. Our level of technology and automation is that good.So how will this play out?Well first, corporations will start to fire more and more people as a result of increased automation. This is already happening, and you can see it in the news every day.This trend may continue for decades, but it's only temporary. If everybody is firing all the time, you end up with a world full of poor people. And poor people are bad for the economy.By this time, corporations will figure out they're eating their own tail. If people can't afford to buy stuff, they can't make any money. And they can't start hiring again, because remember - there aren't any jobs that machines can't do!This is a point where our society will be forced to transform at it's core. It's going to be a very, very rough ride with two possible outcomes:1) A third world war, followed by a significantly reduced world population and infrastructural damage. This will provide grounds to continue the current economic system by providing jobs again (which were created due to sheer reduction in total population and the war damage that needs to be repaired for decades to come)(This is what America+ISIS keeps doing with its dummy war in middle east countries...Iraq, seria, afganistan etc.)2) A reformed, new type of society with wealth distributed equally across the world, where people would not be expected to work for a corporation or earn a wage, but to meaningfully contribute to the further progression of the humanity.(Courtesy : peter)Gandhiji Once said there is enough for everyone's need, but not for one's Greed.Lets hope and propagate for 2nd scenerio.
Nitin
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