What will our future be?

What jobs will less intelligent, lower skilled people do in the future?

  • I think it's becoming clear that the post-WWII American situation where a person who wasn't very bright could find honorable, well-paying work, support a family, and retire comfortably, is ending. We thought that automation and globalization would end these types of jobs in the past, but it turns out we still had a long way to go on both. It's accelerated in the last 10 years, and especially since 2007. And now it's moving up the skill chain. Now it's not 80 IQ assembly-line workers being replaced by hungry people in China, it's 110 IQ paralegals being replaced by software. Agree with the premises above or don't, but here's the question: What will people on the left side of the bell curve do for work in the future? Will these jobs give dignity? What can be done to ensure this? Remember: half of all people have an IQ below 100, and if you are a knowledge-industry worker, especially in a place like Silicon Valley where so many Quorans work, you almost never come into contact with or work with these people in your professional life. Related questions (but not identical) (updated 2012-07-24):

  • Answer:

    Our national debate on employment and economic policy is perpetually focused on solving the wrong end of the problem. We're always trying to figure out how to keep people in lifelong, high-paying careers where they earn lots of money. However, as your question points out, that strategy leaves a lot of people out in the cold. The whole point of economic progress over human history is increasing productivity, wealth, and leisure time. If we had a truly healthy, vibrant economy: People could live decently on much less income. People would have more options for employment such as retiring early, stopping out for a while, working part-time, taking more low-paying jobs in fields they are more interested in, volunteering, going back to school, spending longer in school, etc. Being unemployed for a while wouldn't be the scary prospect it is in our current economy. The healthier and wealthier our economy is, the more it could support countless non-essential "industries": you could make a living as a yoga instructor, fishing guide, color therapist, collage artist, greeter, teaching assistant, gas station attendant, etc. There would be less resentment about paying for social safety net programs. A lot of people could live decently just by being in the same family as someone with a job -- for example, more families could have stay-at-home moms. So, why is our economy so weak? I believe it is because government policies are sucking the wealth out of our economy and spending it on wasteful and often destructive endeavors: our foreign wars and the "military-industrial complex", the "War on Drugs" and the prison industry, the "War on Terrorism", the bailouts, farm subsidies, the list goes on and on. If you look at the history of the United States, there has almost always been anywhere from a trickle to a flood of inflation. If you ask why deflation is bad, all of the arguments boil down to nobody wanting to a decrease in earnings, even if it would come with lower prices -- and so we have a positive feedback loop in which all government policies are directed toward continual inflation and "full" employment. And we all wonder why we have to work harder and harder to make a living.

Mike Laursen at Quora Visit the source

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I think your assumption that "dumb people" wont have a job is right but that has always been the case. How well you do financially isn't really based on intelligence but motivation. Besides, the majority of jobs today require you to go to some on the job training for a few months. I believe this will continue forever until we can download "how to" manuals into our brain. Secondly, technology is making it easier for anyone to do anything. Prior to Wordpress, the average person couldn't start a website. We will see the same trend in mobile apps and even augmented reality apps. Who knows what careers self-authoring software will have? Imagine what cheap 3d printers will do? Programmable robots? Driverless cars? Thirdly, we still need people to work in the hospitality sector. Imagine going to your favorite Indian restaurant and being served by a robot? Even if that's the case, it'll become a competitive advantage to employ humans. I also think in the medical field we will still need humans, sure IBM's Watson looks promising but it's more of a tool. Finally, while it's fun to imagine doom and gloom. Remember civilization will always figure a way out. We can take Joseph Schumpeter's "creative destruction" theory and apply it to human history and we can make a strong case that we will always figure out how to survive. Hey we've made it this far.

Andre Gonsalves

Train robots to do menial tasks.

Rob Brown

“The whole of science is nothing more than a refinement of everyday thinking.” &  â€œScience is a wonderful thing if one does not have to earn one’s living at it.” - Albert Einstein may provide pointers!

Kiran Kadav

This is an argument I have had in the past with America's focus on trying to reclaim manufacturing as opposed to centering on developing more technically skilled labor forces. The issue rests with the education system and the way that students are taught. There are not enough applicable real world subjects that translate to role responsibilities in a company.

David Maynard

All human beings have an incredibly high intelligence and an incredible potential to contribute inventions, ideas, and leadership. I think the question is flawed by its assumption that low-intelligence people exist or that people who are less intelligent than others are not capable of remarkable achievements. Furthermore, the question asks about the future. I assume that education rates and leisure time that allows for greater education and creativity will increase in the future. This assumption, if true, further buttresses my argument that every human being is a genius waiting to be unlocked, rather than a dull robot begging for the assembly line.

Billy Joe Mills

This question has been bugging me. It is sort of an irritant to my soul. Imagine a handful of sand in a jar of vaseline. Yea, that kind of feeling.   In my opinion, we all need each other. (Smart, dumb and everything in between)   I do not know your background but I have an unusual background. (Lived the native sort of life during my youth and stumbled in acadamia.)   In short, what you would consider dumb people, in my view, do pretty brilliant things.   Smart people do some pretty stupid things.   For example, have you ever gone camping with inteligent people. Crap, if it wasn't for my upbringing, many of them would not have survived.   Have you ever gone to a museum with what you would consider dumb people? I admit, I was at time annoyed at their lack of appreciation but they sure could identify crap no matter who made it.   Anyway, I truly believe we need a healthy balance of all kinds of people with all kinds of levels of brain and brawn in order to inhabit this blue marble.

Anna Demers

We might need to consider whether or not everyone has to work in the future. Already, much of the left half of the bell curve is subsidized by social programs. Maintaining the facade that they are only receiving these services as a safety net until they can get trained for the work force is becoming increasingly difficult.

Anonymous

Tools are objects that enhance human capabilities. The better the tool, the greater the amount by which it enhances capabilities. Eventually, tools can get so powerful relative to human capabilities, that the differences in human capabilities being enhanced become too small to be relevant. Some argument could be made that the best tools are also those that are most complex to operate, but I do not think this is the general case. With more and more advanced autopilots, airplanes are becoming less and less difficult to fly; navigation, electronic and hydraulic systems make cars easier to operate, higher level languages and smarter compilers make it easier to write code, advanced assembly machinery and the assembly line are easier than artisanal manufacturing, autocorrect makes it easier to write without errors, advanced calculators automate a lot of mathematical functions, and so on. At most, advanced tools require training rather than intelligence or any other 'inherent' skill. With tools (rather than humans) generating much of the value, with those tools having no use for the value themselves (i.e. you don't pay a hammer a salary), and with everyone being, in principle, capable of being trained to use those tools with sufficiently equal efficacy, the only question that becomes relevant is how access and ownership of those tools is distributed. Put otherwise, if labour's share in the economy greatly diminishes, everyone will need to start out their economically-productive lives with control over sufficiently large pool of capital.

Andrei Timoshenko

Here is one author's rather interesting perspective on this and the whole flood of creative jobs.  http://www.ribbonfarm.com/2013/07/10/you-are-not-an-artisan/

Tuhin Kumar

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